Alright so if your a Jays fan, or just a baseball fan in general you'd know that Alex Anthopolous, the Jays GM, made next to no moves during the offseason, which in all honesty is likely to hamper the teams progress this year and let's face it if your in win now mode you have to spend money to improve the team otherwise you could fall a couple steps behind and make it more difficult the next year or two. Anyhow lets see what I would have tried to spin in order to make the offseason successful
1.) Signing Dioner Navarro - Now I did not think this was a bad signing by any stretch of the imagination, it seemed like a very AA type signing, taking in a player who has shown promise in a part time role and convert him to the position full time and see how he does. All in all Navarro has the chops to pull off a good year behind the plate offensively and his solid defence is a HUGE upgrade from what we had last year.
2.) Sign Masahiro Tanaka - Now I know plenty of people would say 'But The Jays Don't Have That Kind Of Money'. WRONG that is bullshit. And you know why? Well it's because Rogers Communications, the owners of the Blue Jays, have one of the highest incomes for baseball owners (right up there in the top 4 or 5), which means they DO have the money the ownership just needs to step up and offer it. As for what I'd offer I'd go for a similar contract to what the Yankees offered him because you need to indicate to him that the team is serious about winning and that spending spree by the Yankees likely attracted him there but on the other side if he got the same offer from Toronto and saw all the big name players we acquired last year he might've changed his tune a bit. Additionally I believe that AA made a HUGE mistake by not going beyond 5 years, and that is because Tanaka is only 25 and a 7 or even 8 year deal would only take him to age 32-33, which is pretty much statistically the end of a players prime, which means you wouldn't really be eating any of the players downhill performance from getting 'over the hill'. Now I'm not writing any other pitchers in case we lose Tanaka because in my mind it's Tanaka or bust, because time and time again we heard over the offseason we need a front of the rotation starter, but outside of Tanaka every other FA pitcher was at best a 3rd spot in the rotation player.
3.) Trade For Chase Utley/Sign Mark Ellis - Ok so early in the offseason the Phillies re-signed Chase Utley along with some of their other aging players, which was confusing as all hell. But given the size of Utley's salary it would have been easy to try and acquire him by offering up some of our major league ready position players since the position players (nearly all of them) on the Phillies were getting to the point where they wouldn't be able to drive the team anywhere close to the post season and Utley was still able to produce at an offensive level that was a fair bit above the average for second baseman and his defensive prowess was still pretty high level as well. As well considering that we traded Brad Lincoln to the Phillies later in the offseason for Kratz and we still have a surplus of relievers we could have likely put together a package of relief pitchers as well. On the other hand if Utley still optioned to resign with the Phillies for whatever ungodly reason I would go after Mark Ellis, and for the same reason as Utley, he's not going to break the bank like signing Cano would have, but he's about average level offensive production wise and defensive wise. Add on the fact that he was playing in a much bigger park the years before, Dodgers Stadium, moving him to the Rogers Centre in the AL East could have very well given a bit of a boost to his numbers.
Ok so those are the signings/trades I would have attempted to make as the GM of the Blue Jays. Now From here we wonder how the line up would be organized.
Batting Order
1.) Jose Reyes
2.) Melky Cabrera
3.) Jose Bautista
4.) Edwin Encarnacion
5.) Colby Rasmus
6.) Chase Utley/Mark Ellis
7.) Brett Lawrie
8.) Adam Lind
9.) Dioner Navarro
Now obviously the batting order isn't changed much from last year, I moved the second baseman up and kept Navarro down at the bottom, the reason for this is because one of the glaring issues for the Jays last year was inability to hit with runners in scoring position. Now if we look at Utley/Ellis and Navarro they have had pretty high batting avg. over the last couple years, what that tells me is if we sprinkle contact hitters in the late end of the batting order we can ensure that players continue to get on base instead of the 'strikeout alley' we had last year when we had Arencibia, Rasmus, Lawrie and Izturis/Bonifacio all lined up in a row.
Starting Rotation
1.) Masahiro Tanaka
2.) R.A Dickey
3.) Mark Buerhle
4.) Drew Hutchison
5.) Brandon Morrow
Now again heres something I actually liked that AA did, put Morrow in the 5th spot, now that doesn't say anything about his ability as a pitcher but what it does do is, because of travelling days and even lengthen road trips, gives him more rest between starts, which will allow the Jays to stretch him out better and keep him in consistently good shape to prevent wearing out his arm. As well Hutchison had a fantastic spring so I gave him the #4 spot to even things out, otherwise the rotation is the same as last year with the addition of Tanaka.
-Eric
Monday, March 31, 2014
Saturday, March 29, 2014
A New Year A New Season (NL Breakdown)
Alright, here comes the NL side of things.
NL East:
Atlanta Braves: This offseason the Braves didn't do a whole lot, probably because they spent a lot on the Upton brothers and a couple other things last year, what they DID do, and I applaud them for this, is they have been slowly but surely been extending the current players they have to keep their core group of players together for a longer period of time. This will likely ensure they have a quality team to put out on the field for years to come. On the spring training side however the Braves ended up getting the short stick as both Mike Minor and Kris Medlen went down with injuries and will not be available for long periods of time, severely hampering their rotation. So to counter the Braves signed Ervin Santana, who will likely head up the back of the rotation with new guys like Alex Wood coming in to fill the more top of the rotation spots. All in all a good offseason followed by a bad injury hit spring training.
Philadelphia Phillies: Now I still don't think I understand what Ruben Amaro Jr. is trying to do here, it's like he's in a delusional state that still thinks he can win despite the fact that the core of his team is getting to the point of being a rotten apple and his rotation has been falling apart ever since Oswalt started to fall apart a few years ago. Now they again didn't do much in the offseason, they made a few trades (like for Brad Lincoln), they resigned Chase Utley (huh?) and got some players to fill out their starting rotation. Now like the Braves they took a major hit when one of their ace starters, Cole Hamels, went down with an injury. Now it's not as serious as what happened with Medlen but given the glaring weakness the Phillies have in their rotation behind Hamels and Lee it's likely to make big problems for them for the time he is gone.
Washington Nationals: Now all I can do is say bravo to what the Nationals have done so far, they made an INCREDIBLY lopsided trade with the Tigers for Doug Fister, they've managed Stephen Strasburg perfectly so they can now let him off the leash this year and they could make some potential player moves that could play off (ie. slot in Rendon at 3rd and move Zimmerman to 1st). Their spring training thankful hasn't come with any serious injuries to their team and on the other hand Bryce Harper came into camp looking like a god damn tank. The only thing they didn't do was address their bullpen issue as Rafael Soriano was fairly shaky last year in the closer position, though this isn't a huge worry as they still have Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, 2 proven closers, ready to take over if he stumbles.
Miami Marlins: Not even going to say anything here, they made more questionable signings, and honestly I think the Marlins franchise will be forever tainted after last offseason because after hearing from the guys who got traded it seemed like Jeff Loria has complete control of the team and has no regard for player's livelihood. This can be further seen by the fact that Giancarlo Stanton doesn't seem to want to sign an extension with them, overall I think Loria has damaged the reputation of the Marlins and they will find it hard to sign players for a while, unless they can show otherwise.
New York Mets: Now the Mets again didn't make any huge splashes, they signed a couple aging players like Marlin Byrd and Curtis Granderson, but again thats just what they are aging players, so don't look for them to make any glaring differences in the teams play. Spring training wise it was a bit odd with the Mets, not so much because of injuries but there was a bit of a spat between the Mets and Matt Harvey about where he would rehab his arm, as well as their GM saying that he believed they were capable of winning 90+ games with their current roster. A bit odd, on the other hand, and it pains me to say this, but ex-Jays prospect Noah Syndergaard, who is with the Mets now looked fantastic this spring and is more than likely going to make the starting rotation in a year or two. All in all the Mets are going to be a force to be reckoned with in a couple years as they have Johnathon Niese and Dillion Gee, coupled with Zach Wheeler, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard all three of which have the potential to be top 10 starting pitchers.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs: Well the cubs again like many developing teams, did not make any big time changes to their roster over the offseason. Luckily they managed to stay rather clean in the way of injuries and have made a good decision to slot Mike Olt in at 3rd base for the season, which will no doubt better integrate their future players and there has been talk about bringing up Javier Baez, their SS prospect. Hell even Starlin Castro even has said he'd be willing to move to 2B to make room for Baez, this is very good to hear, not only do they have one of their biggest prospects close to breaking the major league roster but its good to hear that other stars in the roster are excited and willing to bite the bullet so to speak in order to get him in. Much like the Mets, if the Cubs prospects break out at the same time they will be a deadly team in a few years.
Cincinnati Reds: Again like the Cubs, the Reds didn't make any serious moves during the offseason, though they did say goodbye to catcher Ryan Hannigan, and outfielder Shin Soo Choo. The loss of Choo was a pretty big deal as he has a big OBP and was VERY key as their lead off hitter, losing Hannigan however wasn't as much of a big deal as he hasn't recently been a huge piece on the team defensively or offensively. On the other hand they have made changes using internal options, specifically bringing up prospect Billy Hamilton and Tony Cingrani to cover the holes in the oration and outfield. Now both of these guys tore it up in the minors and are looked at as big time prospects, now Cingrani has proved his talent with about half a season under his belt last year. On the other hand there are many detractors to Billy Hamilton since he isn't really profiled as having very good batting stats and abilities, however he has been fairly good during spring training flashing some good ability to act as the Reds lead off hitter and if he can put that speed of his to use it'll be a big help for the Reds (he can beat out a throw from Yadier Molina, the best defensive catcher in the game)
Milwaukee Brewers: Seems like a pretty common thing in the NL Central but the Brewers again didn't break the bank making any major signings either outside of getting Matt Garza back after their trade of him to the Rangers mid last year. Now again like the Reds the holes that were left after last year have been filled by younger players that many analysts believe have some high potentials, such as Khris Davis (yes different from the Baltimore Chris Davis) and Jean Segura. Both of these guys are expected to be fairly high end players in the next few years and given what has been seen from them in the minors, spring training and their limited last year exposure it is very much possible that they could achieve it.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Now I know this may be a surprise but the Pirates………..DIDN'T make any big moves this offseason! It's get a bit odd typing this over and over but its' the truth, the Pirates lost A.J Burnett but not much else and they had Wandy Rodriguez coming back from injury so they already had a worthy option to fill that void, so no issue. Overall they still have the ability to make a splash in the NL Central and potentially make it to the wild card again this year.
St. Louis Cardinals: Now I don't want to sound like I'm branding over for the Cardinals but in my mind these guys are like the gold standard that every baseball organization should strive to be like. Now I say that because they have made some good moves this offseason (signing Johnny Peralta, trading for Peter Bourjos and signing Mark Ellis). Now the Peralta signing may not be perfect but it will likely help with the offensive hold left by Beltran and trading for Bourjos does the exact opposite that happened with Beltran, it gives them a Gold Glove caliber player who can easily cover the range. Now I'm not saying defence is better than offence, but a highly defensive centre fielder is a HUGE asset when you live in a more pitcher friendly park as they can make the catches a slower more power focused CF might not be able to. The only funny thing is that after signing Mark Ellis to cover 2B they noticed Kolten Wong, who broke camp and took away the 2B position from Ellis as his performance in spring training was great. Now this is very helpful because now they have one of their star infielder prospects in and a very usable defensive and offensive replacement ready to go if anything goes south. Then in terms of pitching they have the return of all of their huge new players who dominated last year in the rotation and hell they even have 2 of them (Rosenthal and Martinez) holding up the back end of their bullpen. With their prospects in more fortified positions the Cardinals are again a HUGE bit of competition.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ok so the Diamondbacks did make some moves on the offseason for instance being involved in that 3 team trade with the Angels and the White Sox, however they seemed to get the short stick of the trade as they gave up big prospects like Skaggs and Eaton and only got Addison Reed and Mark Trumbo in return. Now I don't think Trumbo is a bad player but with Goldschmidt at first they have to slot him in the outfield and as he's a slower player he's a bit of a defensive liability and he has been a bit strikeout happy over the last couple seasons, which again is not that great even if he hits 30 or so HR a year. Reed on the other hand is good for a closer but not for the trading away of Skaggs and Eaton. Outside of that they have brought up prospects Chris Owings and Didi Gregorious to play SS and it looks like they will likely platoon those guys against their respective pitchers for the best results, in addition they also signed Bronson Arroyo, which was a bit odd because it fortified the back end of their rotation, which you think they would like to keep open since they have younger players that will or already have come up and need to get experience in those 4/5 rotation spots (Randal Delgado and Archie Bradley). However during spring training they lost their ace Patrick Corbin to Tommy John surgery and will be out for the remainder of this year and will likely not be back not be back to full power until about half to a full yr after that (which is pretty typical of pitchers who undergo tommy john, which is why the Nationals held a innings limit over Strasburg the first year back).
Colorado Rockies: Not much was done here, only real move of any consequence that the Rockies made was trading Drew Pomeranz to the Oakland Athletics for Brett Anderson, who will sit mid way in their rotation, which could help but still moving any pitcher to Coors Field is always a bit sketchy but we'll see.
LA Dodgers: Much like the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers only made a few changes to their roster and they weren't all that significant. They first added the Cuban defector Alexandre Guerrero who was supposed to take the place of Mark Ellis at second, however through spring training it was VERY apparent he had a LONG way to go in order to make the major league roster so he's starting the season in the minors and Dee Gordon is getting a second chance in the roster at second until Alex is ready. The other change they made was signing Dan Haren, now the Dodgers slotted him into the 4th position in their starting rotation, which seems to be about the right spot of Haren, however he is a injury risk given his current injury history, which could pose problems since they have lost some of their starting pitching depth to injury or free agency (i.e.. Capuano, Biilingsley, etc.). As well there have been some minor injuries to Dodgers players that will only really affect the first couple games and likely won't effect their finishing position.
San Diego Padres: Ok so the Padres actually have an interesting team this year, now they didn't many changes outside of grabbing up Ian Kennedy, Josh Johnson and Joaquin Benoit. Now these 3 pitchers might not be huge deals in any team in a VERY pitcher friendly park like Petco it increases their value significantly, now Johnson has gotten injured AGAIN so he is likely not to contribute much during the year however Kennedy could very well help the rotation and Joaquin Benoit is a quality set up man and could be invaluable as a backstop behind Huston Street both to protect the lead or fill in if Street gets injured like he has before. Now the reason I say they have an interesting team isn't because of these signings it's because they have 2 high end prospects who have high upside settling in their rotation, Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, now Cashner has already proved himself as a top of the rotation starter and can hold his own against most. In addition if Venable, Maybin and Cabrera can continue their production from last year or even make a slight step forward their offence will be in a good spot. Additionally they have their big name catcher Yasmani Grandal back from the DL and again that gives the offence a boost and if Gyorko can keep his production from last year and Headley can step back to his 2011 skill set then the Padres could be a logical postseason candidate.
San Francisco Giants: Much like the Dodgers, the Giants made only a couple of signings under the radar because they weren't high end players, those being Tim Hudson and Michael Morse. Now these two signings are good for the Giants because Hudson may be an aged pitcher but AT&T park is one of the best pitcher friendly parks which should make him a more worth while pitcher and Michael Morse is a good candidate to get his power back given what we saw in Spring Training and at the tail end of last year. Outside of this there wasn't any significant changes mad to their roster and their spring training didn't bring about any serious injuries or prospects that could break camp, overall expect more of the same or maybe a slight improvement for the Giants this season.
Ok so that wraps up the Offseason and Spring Training breakdowns for both the AL and NL. Next I'm going to be putting on my GM hat and letting everyone know what I would have done if I was in the position of Alex Anthopolous over last offseason. Now I don't plan on saying I would sign ALL of the big name free agents, I will give specific players that would make sense and explanations to them all.
-Eric
NL East:
Atlanta Braves: This offseason the Braves didn't do a whole lot, probably because they spent a lot on the Upton brothers and a couple other things last year, what they DID do, and I applaud them for this, is they have been slowly but surely been extending the current players they have to keep their core group of players together for a longer period of time. This will likely ensure they have a quality team to put out on the field for years to come. On the spring training side however the Braves ended up getting the short stick as both Mike Minor and Kris Medlen went down with injuries and will not be available for long periods of time, severely hampering their rotation. So to counter the Braves signed Ervin Santana, who will likely head up the back of the rotation with new guys like Alex Wood coming in to fill the more top of the rotation spots. All in all a good offseason followed by a bad injury hit spring training.
Philadelphia Phillies: Now I still don't think I understand what Ruben Amaro Jr. is trying to do here, it's like he's in a delusional state that still thinks he can win despite the fact that the core of his team is getting to the point of being a rotten apple and his rotation has been falling apart ever since Oswalt started to fall apart a few years ago. Now they again didn't do much in the offseason, they made a few trades (like for Brad Lincoln), they resigned Chase Utley (huh?) and got some players to fill out their starting rotation. Now like the Braves they took a major hit when one of their ace starters, Cole Hamels, went down with an injury. Now it's not as serious as what happened with Medlen but given the glaring weakness the Phillies have in their rotation behind Hamels and Lee it's likely to make big problems for them for the time he is gone.
Washington Nationals: Now all I can do is say bravo to what the Nationals have done so far, they made an INCREDIBLY lopsided trade with the Tigers for Doug Fister, they've managed Stephen Strasburg perfectly so they can now let him off the leash this year and they could make some potential player moves that could play off (ie. slot in Rendon at 3rd and move Zimmerman to 1st). Their spring training thankful hasn't come with any serious injuries to their team and on the other hand Bryce Harper came into camp looking like a god damn tank. The only thing they didn't do was address their bullpen issue as Rafael Soriano was fairly shaky last year in the closer position, though this isn't a huge worry as they still have Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, 2 proven closers, ready to take over if he stumbles.
Miami Marlins: Not even going to say anything here, they made more questionable signings, and honestly I think the Marlins franchise will be forever tainted after last offseason because after hearing from the guys who got traded it seemed like Jeff Loria has complete control of the team and has no regard for player's livelihood. This can be further seen by the fact that Giancarlo Stanton doesn't seem to want to sign an extension with them, overall I think Loria has damaged the reputation of the Marlins and they will find it hard to sign players for a while, unless they can show otherwise.
New York Mets: Now the Mets again didn't make any huge splashes, they signed a couple aging players like Marlin Byrd and Curtis Granderson, but again thats just what they are aging players, so don't look for them to make any glaring differences in the teams play. Spring training wise it was a bit odd with the Mets, not so much because of injuries but there was a bit of a spat between the Mets and Matt Harvey about where he would rehab his arm, as well as their GM saying that he believed they were capable of winning 90+ games with their current roster. A bit odd, on the other hand, and it pains me to say this, but ex-Jays prospect Noah Syndergaard, who is with the Mets now looked fantastic this spring and is more than likely going to make the starting rotation in a year or two. All in all the Mets are going to be a force to be reckoned with in a couple years as they have Johnathon Niese and Dillion Gee, coupled with Zach Wheeler, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard all three of which have the potential to be top 10 starting pitchers.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs: Well the cubs again like many developing teams, did not make any big time changes to their roster over the offseason. Luckily they managed to stay rather clean in the way of injuries and have made a good decision to slot Mike Olt in at 3rd base for the season, which will no doubt better integrate their future players and there has been talk about bringing up Javier Baez, their SS prospect. Hell even Starlin Castro even has said he'd be willing to move to 2B to make room for Baez, this is very good to hear, not only do they have one of their biggest prospects close to breaking the major league roster but its good to hear that other stars in the roster are excited and willing to bite the bullet so to speak in order to get him in. Much like the Mets, if the Cubs prospects break out at the same time they will be a deadly team in a few years.
Cincinnati Reds: Again like the Cubs, the Reds didn't make any serious moves during the offseason, though they did say goodbye to catcher Ryan Hannigan, and outfielder Shin Soo Choo. The loss of Choo was a pretty big deal as he has a big OBP and was VERY key as their lead off hitter, losing Hannigan however wasn't as much of a big deal as he hasn't recently been a huge piece on the team defensively or offensively. On the other hand they have made changes using internal options, specifically bringing up prospect Billy Hamilton and Tony Cingrani to cover the holes in the oration and outfield. Now both of these guys tore it up in the minors and are looked at as big time prospects, now Cingrani has proved his talent with about half a season under his belt last year. On the other hand there are many detractors to Billy Hamilton since he isn't really profiled as having very good batting stats and abilities, however he has been fairly good during spring training flashing some good ability to act as the Reds lead off hitter and if he can put that speed of his to use it'll be a big help for the Reds (he can beat out a throw from Yadier Molina, the best defensive catcher in the game)
Milwaukee Brewers: Seems like a pretty common thing in the NL Central but the Brewers again didn't break the bank making any major signings either outside of getting Matt Garza back after their trade of him to the Rangers mid last year. Now again like the Reds the holes that were left after last year have been filled by younger players that many analysts believe have some high potentials, such as Khris Davis (yes different from the Baltimore Chris Davis) and Jean Segura. Both of these guys are expected to be fairly high end players in the next few years and given what has been seen from them in the minors, spring training and their limited last year exposure it is very much possible that they could achieve it.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Now I know this may be a surprise but the Pirates………..DIDN'T make any big moves this offseason! It's get a bit odd typing this over and over but its' the truth, the Pirates lost A.J Burnett but not much else and they had Wandy Rodriguez coming back from injury so they already had a worthy option to fill that void, so no issue. Overall they still have the ability to make a splash in the NL Central and potentially make it to the wild card again this year.
St. Louis Cardinals: Now I don't want to sound like I'm branding over for the Cardinals but in my mind these guys are like the gold standard that every baseball organization should strive to be like. Now I say that because they have made some good moves this offseason (signing Johnny Peralta, trading for Peter Bourjos and signing Mark Ellis). Now the Peralta signing may not be perfect but it will likely help with the offensive hold left by Beltran and trading for Bourjos does the exact opposite that happened with Beltran, it gives them a Gold Glove caliber player who can easily cover the range. Now I'm not saying defence is better than offence, but a highly defensive centre fielder is a HUGE asset when you live in a more pitcher friendly park as they can make the catches a slower more power focused CF might not be able to. The only funny thing is that after signing Mark Ellis to cover 2B they noticed Kolten Wong, who broke camp and took away the 2B position from Ellis as his performance in spring training was great. Now this is very helpful because now they have one of their star infielder prospects in and a very usable defensive and offensive replacement ready to go if anything goes south. Then in terms of pitching they have the return of all of their huge new players who dominated last year in the rotation and hell they even have 2 of them (Rosenthal and Martinez) holding up the back end of their bullpen. With their prospects in more fortified positions the Cardinals are again a HUGE bit of competition.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ok so the Diamondbacks did make some moves on the offseason for instance being involved in that 3 team trade with the Angels and the White Sox, however they seemed to get the short stick of the trade as they gave up big prospects like Skaggs and Eaton and only got Addison Reed and Mark Trumbo in return. Now I don't think Trumbo is a bad player but with Goldschmidt at first they have to slot him in the outfield and as he's a slower player he's a bit of a defensive liability and he has been a bit strikeout happy over the last couple seasons, which again is not that great even if he hits 30 or so HR a year. Reed on the other hand is good for a closer but not for the trading away of Skaggs and Eaton. Outside of that they have brought up prospects Chris Owings and Didi Gregorious to play SS and it looks like they will likely platoon those guys against their respective pitchers for the best results, in addition they also signed Bronson Arroyo, which was a bit odd because it fortified the back end of their rotation, which you think they would like to keep open since they have younger players that will or already have come up and need to get experience in those 4/5 rotation spots (Randal Delgado and Archie Bradley). However during spring training they lost their ace Patrick Corbin to Tommy John surgery and will be out for the remainder of this year and will likely not be back not be back to full power until about half to a full yr after that (which is pretty typical of pitchers who undergo tommy john, which is why the Nationals held a innings limit over Strasburg the first year back).
Colorado Rockies: Not much was done here, only real move of any consequence that the Rockies made was trading Drew Pomeranz to the Oakland Athletics for Brett Anderson, who will sit mid way in their rotation, which could help but still moving any pitcher to Coors Field is always a bit sketchy but we'll see.
LA Dodgers: Much like the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers only made a few changes to their roster and they weren't all that significant. They first added the Cuban defector Alexandre Guerrero who was supposed to take the place of Mark Ellis at second, however through spring training it was VERY apparent he had a LONG way to go in order to make the major league roster so he's starting the season in the minors and Dee Gordon is getting a second chance in the roster at second until Alex is ready. The other change they made was signing Dan Haren, now the Dodgers slotted him into the 4th position in their starting rotation, which seems to be about the right spot of Haren, however he is a injury risk given his current injury history, which could pose problems since they have lost some of their starting pitching depth to injury or free agency (i.e.. Capuano, Biilingsley, etc.). As well there have been some minor injuries to Dodgers players that will only really affect the first couple games and likely won't effect their finishing position.
San Diego Padres: Ok so the Padres actually have an interesting team this year, now they didn't many changes outside of grabbing up Ian Kennedy, Josh Johnson and Joaquin Benoit. Now these 3 pitchers might not be huge deals in any team in a VERY pitcher friendly park like Petco it increases their value significantly, now Johnson has gotten injured AGAIN so he is likely not to contribute much during the year however Kennedy could very well help the rotation and Joaquin Benoit is a quality set up man and could be invaluable as a backstop behind Huston Street both to protect the lead or fill in if Street gets injured like he has before. Now the reason I say they have an interesting team isn't because of these signings it's because they have 2 high end prospects who have high upside settling in their rotation, Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, now Cashner has already proved himself as a top of the rotation starter and can hold his own against most. In addition if Venable, Maybin and Cabrera can continue their production from last year or even make a slight step forward their offence will be in a good spot. Additionally they have their big name catcher Yasmani Grandal back from the DL and again that gives the offence a boost and if Gyorko can keep his production from last year and Headley can step back to his 2011 skill set then the Padres could be a logical postseason candidate.
San Francisco Giants: Much like the Dodgers, the Giants made only a couple of signings under the radar because they weren't high end players, those being Tim Hudson and Michael Morse. Now these two signings are good for the Giants because Hudson may be an aged pitcher but AT&T park is one of the best pitcher friendly parks which should make him a more worth while pitcher and Michael Morse is a good candidate to get his power back given what we saw in Spring Training and at the tail end of last year. Outside of this there wasn't any significant changes mad to their roster and their spring training didn't bring about any serious injuries or prospects that could break camp, overall expect more of the same or maybe a slight improvement for the Giants this season.
Ok so that wraps up the Offseason and Spring Training breakdowns for both the AL and NL. Next I'm going to be putting on my GM hat and letting everyone know what I would have done if I was in the position of Alex Anthopolous over last offseason. Now I don't plan on saying I would sign ALL of the big name free agents, I will give specific players that would make sense and explanations to them all.
-Eric
Thursday, March 27, 2014
A New Year A New Season (AL Breakdown)
So it's less than a week until opening day for baseball and several teams look quite sharper than they did at the end of last year, let's tale a quick look at the changes to each division over the offseason and subsequent spring training.
AL East
AL East
- Yankees signed McCann, Beltran, Ellsbury, Tanaka, Johnson and Roberts to cover for departures at C, CF, LF, 2B, 3B and SP (I personally think most of these position player signings will come back to bite the Yankees, though I believe thats because most of the position players have shown to be injury risks and have all been signed onto lengthy contracts, so I expect for the first 2-3 yrs they will get what they paid for but then the players will degrade like what happened with Texiera, Granderson and others and the Yanks will be stuck with their dick in their hands once again)
- Red Sox didn't do all that much, signed A.J. Pierzynski and nabbed some other players including Grady Sizemore (whose spring training may indicate he can play up to around the same level he could before, if he manages to stay healthy, which would make the Red Sox a dangerous team again. Although their loss of Dempster in the rotation does put a small hole in their pitching as well)
- Rays, like the Red Sox didn't do a hell of a lot, they re-signed players, snagged some more bargain free agents, which is what they do, and given their ability to develop players, they will undoubtably be a force come postseason time
- Orioles signed some new pitching, specifically guys like Ubaldo Jimenez, now I don't like this guy much (as a pitcher not a person) and thats because he has been incredibly inconsistent bouncing back and forth from good yr to bad yr and on top of that people are over hyping what he did last year since he only managed it for HALF a season. In addition to improvement to their rotation they changed around their bullpen with the departure of Jim Johnson and also filled holes left by Brian Roberts and others as well as finding a temporary fill in for Machado. Like the Rays they have had winning in their eyes and will likely again be a competitive team this year
- Jays, well unfortunately my team didn't do much of anything, they made several rather meaningless minor league deals (except getting Kawasaki back), signed Dioner Navarro (who would be a fantastic signing if he can get to the numbers he had last year in a part time role with the Cubs. In addition they have taken Happ out of the rotation (mostly due to injury) and slotted in 2 of the 3 returning from Tommy John, Drew Hutchison and Dustin McGowan, both who have had productive spring training numbers. The level of success the Jays see this year will solely depend on 3 things, first the teams ability to stay healthy (while lots of people say the Jays were just bad last year there was not a single game where we fielded the lineup AA had set up and a lot of bad performances can be attributed to injuries, like Melky and the tumour or Dickey and his back issues), second the starting rotation needs to pull it's weight and not fall flat on it's face like last year (while injuries were a big part of it the Jays got off to an incredibly slow start due to the rotation, no pun intended, dropping the ball for most of the year and the depth we used to fill being unable to keep up), and third breakouts or progression from McGowan, Hutchison and Lawrie, we all know that Encarnacion, Bautista, Reyes and Rasmus (to a lesser extent) have the ability to drive this offence but the problem we had offensively last year was an inability to hit with runners in scoring position (in essence our first 4 batters would set the table but everyone after was unable to clear it)
AL Central
- Tigers made one decent to 'meh' trade and one really crap trade, they obtained Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder (a not so great trade for them since Fielder is obviously the more premium player in the deal and Kinsler's skill set has been declining in recent years and moving him to a less hitter friendly park will hurt his numbers more. Then they also let go of Doug Fister for some prospects from Washington, those of which were not of high quality, this was terrible as they were giving up a very solid #2-#3 starter for no real immediate pay off, which is what they need and given that Fister is a ground ball pitcher he would have benefitted from the better defence provided from the newly acquired 2B and Iglesias once he's back. All in all the Tigers slightly downgraded and since last season showed us Miggy is human as he got injured, now while this open the floodgates for Miggy injuries? Maybe but we'll have to see
- White Sox, now I really like what these guys did, they secured through trade and signing some real stellar young talent and then managed to sign some key young players like Jose Abreu that will hold as the core of their roster for years to come. If their pitching in the minors catches up the White Sox could very well be contenders within the next 3-4 years.
- Royals, now I'm in awe at what they have been able to do, they increased their offensive ability and defensive ability by taking on Norichika Aoki as well as Omar Infante, they re-signed Shields and they are bringing up a fireball throwing youngster in Yordano Ventura to cover the last spot in their rotation and if any of the Cardinals young pitchers have shown us anything, these young guys can be stars right off the bat. The Royals will, in my opinion, likely take the AL Central or at least give a real close chase with the Tigers
- Twins, not much of anything to say. They signed Nolasco, Hughes and other mediocre pitchers who are unlikely to really change their situation, I expect they will still be at the bottom of the barrel
- Indians will be in a similar situation to the Tigers in that they let go some key players and didn't do a hell of a lot to make up for their absence and this year they don't have that ridiculously easy schedule to rely upon to get by. All in all in order for the Indians to replicate their 2013 success all of their players are going to have to play at 100+% and they will need breakouts from some of their younger guys like Danny Salazar, Trevor Plouffe or Lonnie Chisenhall
AL West:
- Athletics, now I love most of these small market teams because they manage to be so damn smart about winning, now the Athletics like many small market teams didn't make much of a splash this offseason, they changed closers to Jim Johnson, which couldn't hurt since Oakland has a smaller ball park and better infield defence. In addition they traded away some guys for some pitching depth. Now recently however a couple of their starters have managed to get themselves injured, specifically Jarrod Parker who is out for the year getting Tommy John surgery, which will undoubtedly hurt them in the long run. However the A's still have a good set of pitchers including one of the star young pitchers from last year Sonny Gray and given that every team in the AL West seems to be getting hit by the injury bug I expect them to be the main source of competition in the AL West.
- Rangers, now on the other side of the Tigers trade, they got the best f the deal and they even managed to sort out issues they would have initially had in their bullpen by bringing back Feliz and setting up Soria as the set up man. Now that was before all the injuries hit, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and countless others will be out for extended periods of time putting a big dent in their pitching as well as their offence (Profar and Andrus). If these players can come back in good shape in a hurry they will probably finish second in this division
- Angels, made a couple 'meh' trades to increase pitching depth but similar to the Jays if their players can stay healthy, they get breakouts from some of the younger players and these new pitchers deliver then they could be a force to be reckoned with, especially with the potential ceiling with guys like Tyler Skaggs
- Mariners, these were the big guys who signed Robinson Cano to the most ridiculous deal in the history of baseball, in addition they made other additions like Corey Hart to their offence and brought up some of their high end pitching prospects to start the year (Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, etc.). They have the same kind of out look as the Angels, though their offence has several more questions than the other teams so they aren't likely to make the playoffs or anything
- Astros, while they will likely be looking at another at or around 100 loss season looking at the progress of their prospects and how close they are to the majors, the Astros are going to be a very scary team in the next 4-5 years and the addition of Dexter Fowler will help with holding things down now and maybe helping ease in the new kids when they get called up. All in all I look forward to seeing the progression of the Astros as their farm system risings from the grave to take a shot a the post season.
Well thats the run down for the AL, I'll post the NL version shortly they I'm going to go back and let you know what I would have done if I was in Alex Anthopolous' position during the offseason.
-Eric
Monday, October 21, 2013
Blue Jays Offseason Needs
Alright so lately I've been seeing lots of rumours surrounding what the Jays are doing or what they should do, now what I'm going to do is outline possibilities that have cropped their heads up and realistic moves I think the Jays either should or could make for the areas they need major help in.
Catcher:
-Ok so the first thing I read this morning was that the Jays were targeting Chris Ianetta and/or Hank Conger from the LA Angels via trade. Now this is a TERRIBLE idea, the reason is because one both of these players are FAR more expensive than J.P. Arencibia (salary wise we're talking 510k for J.P and more than 4 million for either of the LA catchers), two they aren't that much better (Conger and Ianetta have better OPS and walk rates but they still have lacklustre defensive skills as they still have a 25% or below stealing throw out and both have several based balls and errors) and three neither of these guys are that good at calling games (that means calling pitches and pitch locations) and with a staff that could very well consist of a lot of new guys (if we have injuries in 2014, which we likely will at some point) intelligent catchers like Yadier Molina are needed. So overall I don't think this move will happen as it will downgrade our already not fantastic prospect pool for a very lacklustre upgrade
-On the other hand there are still possibilities at the catcher position, specifically we can look at how Mike Napoli was only signed for a 1 year deal with the Red Sox. If Boston is not open to shelling out more than another 1 yr deal for the catcher we could give him a 2-3 year deal since that still covers the window where we have the core players in place. As well we must not forget that Brian McCann and A.J Pierzynski are also a free agents this year as well and would fit in quite well offensively and defensively, especially considering Pierzynski has played with Buerhle before. The final possibility is this cuban catcher that I've read some about, now this could be good mainly because of how effecient we've seen some Cuban players be (Puig, Cespedes and Chapman).
Second Base:
-Not many reports have come out in terms of what the Jays plan to do here, the logical move for most people would be to throw Ryan Goins a bone and let him start at 2nd considering how well he played in the last month of the season. Now while I think this is an awesome idea because of how much Goins reminded me of Roberto Alomar, I'm not sure it is what they need right now as we have only 2 years until that window of time where we have all of our stars locked down ends and trying to integrate a young player like Goins may take some time. Not to mention I'd rather have our future stars lined up to come out at one time to make another all star calibre team rather than one at a time and fade into mediocrity.
-Now heres what I think is possible for the Jays, they could make an attempt at signing Robinson Cano (though anything past a 5 year deal would be suicide) which may go over since most big money teams either have an established second baseman or have come out and said their not going to be taking part in Canopalooza. The second option is to trade for a quality second baseman, now out of all the players out there the ones I believe that fit best and are most likely are Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler and Marco Scutaro. Now heres why for each, Utley makes sense because his production level is still on the up and the Phillies have all but collapsed in recent years and are in serious need of remodelling for their team. Scutaro makes sense as well because the Giants just came back from a World Series win and barely managed to scrape together a over .500 season, now with Scutaro I don't think we're expecting a home run hitting machine but he's obviously a lead off hitter and behind Reyes that would be great for loading the bases before the big guns come up. Now the one that most will think stands out and doesn't make sense is Ian Kinsler but just let me explain. First off we know Kinsler has agreed to an extension that ties him down until the 2017 season so theres a fair amount of money involved (not that it's an issue for the Rangers or the Jays) and then the Rangers have nearly made Jurickson Profar a regular, but the 2B/SS doesn't have a spot to fit in unless someone gets injured and to develop him they need to make room, so the obvious thing is to trade Kinsler and slot in Profar as their second baseman. Overall it makes sense for both teams. Then of course there is lovely free agency, which has Cano, Uggla, Infante and potentially Zobrist coming out. I personally don't think Uggla or Cano will end up coming to Toronto, because Uggla has been just as bad if not worse that J.P Arencibia in the batting sense this year and because the price tag on Cano is too high unless he'll take a lower year contract. On the other hand Infante and Zobrist are intriguing because thy are both quality defenders and when on can be more than above average at the plate, more so with Infante, though Zobrist has some serious multiple position ability which would be a big life saver for the Jays as it seems every year someone goes down on injury.
Pitching:
-Not much to discuss here in terms of news, the only trade whisper I've heard is the Jays taking a look at Brett Anderson, which I think is a bad idea since we already have enough pitchers with terrible injury history and taking on another pitcher injury reclamation project would be suicide until we get the ones we currently have done (Morrow, Johnson, Hutchinson, Drabek, etc.). On the international side though there has been some interest show in the Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (Ma-kun), now I've gone to Japan before and had the pleasure of watching many Japanese baseball games and boy are thy exciting, the outfield is reserved for hardcore fans of each team (left is the home team and right is the away team). Hell it's like a soccer crowd in a baseball stadium. Anyhow Tanaka has a similar repetoire to Yu Darvish and has been just a successful, which leads me to believe that he would be a good pick up for the Jays. Though if thats not enough for you lets look at another few factors. First off the fan base, this year has shown us that there is plenty of love for Japanese players in the Jays fan base (2 words Munenori Kawasaki) and on top of that one thing Darvish didn't have when he came over was a Japanese team mate to help him integrate and considering how friendly Kawasaki is and how crazy fans go for him I can't imagine the same wouldn't happen for Tanaka. Second we have the stadium, Darvish has been wildly successful in Texas and if we look at it Rogers is a FAR more pitcher friendly park than Arlington so it'd be easier for Tanaka to gain the same level of performance as Darvish in Toronto. Overall he seems like a great fit and I would be ecstatic to finally see a good Japanese pitcher get into the Jays rotation.
-Now on the other hand there isn't much available in the free agent pool for starting pitchers, now don't get me wrong there are a few pitchers that would vastly improve the rotation but those guys I expect to get offers from their current teams and come back to there (ie. Hiroki Kuroda, A.J Burnett, etc.). So theres not much to offer there.
Alright so I'll be doing this for the Orioles this weekend and possibly for the Cardinals the following week (though it doesn't look like they need much of anything with that lineup)
-Eric
Saturday, August 31, 2013
Playoff Predictions - Teams and Bracket
Ok so whats all on every baseball fans minds at this point? Who is going to the playoffs, thats what! Well there are some obvious teams that are going to the playoffs, however there are still some battles for division 1st place or wild cards still going on that means a lot so in essence I'm going to give you what teams I think are going to be going to the playoffs and whose going to go how far.
AL:
East Winners: Tampa Bay Rays - Now the reason I think the Rays will take this division is because in my honest opinion, the Boston Red Sox having been playing over their heads for the entire year, that is to say EVERYTHING has gone right and nothing has gone wrong. So overall I think they will slip back and the Rays will win the division, I mean their only 2.5 games back at the moment so it's not all that farfetched idea to begin with.
Central Winners: Detroit Tigers - Now this is an obvious one but honestly for ages I've been in the group that has considered the Tigers INSANELY overrated. Now before you get your pitchforks for me going against Miggy and Verlander you have to remember that usually they aren't the top placed team in terms of win-loss record in the AL and several years they haven't even been 2nd. That of course means that their percent win-loss was below that of the AL West and/or AL East winners and thats even more disturbing when you consider that about half of their games are against division rivals, and honestly do you think that a team would have a harder time against the East teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays) where all the teams are in hitter friendly parks and with high end teams or Central teams (Twins, Royals, Indians, Tigers and White Sox) who are balanced in terms of pitcher parks vs hitter parks. Now after looking after looking at that and considering the amount of talent that the Tigers have and the weak schedule they have, them finishing with less than the highest W-L percentage in the AL is disturbing. Anyhow Tigers should take the Central no problem.
West Winners: Texas Rangers - Not much discussion here, there is a bit of a close call with the Oakland A's right now but considering that the Rangers have been on a roll lately and have a better rest of the schedule than Oakland I expect they will be the ones to stand atop the AL West.
AL Wild Card Winners: Ok so the wild card winners I've picked up are the other two teams I spoke about in the West and East winners, that being the Oakland Athletics and the Boston Red Sox.
NL:
East Winners: Atlanta Braves - No question here as the the Braves have been dominating the NL East and they have a 13 game lead on the 2nd place Nationals so there is no hope of anyone catching them during the rest of the month.
Central Winners: St. Louis Cardinals - Now again this seems like a no brainer but the main reason I think the Cardinals are going to take it over the Pirates is because as I previously mentioned in my Last Month post, the Pirates have a series of games against the Reds in the last month and some middle of the road or somewhat difficult opponents where as the Cardinals have games against nearly all below .500 teams.
West Winners: Los Angeles Dodgers: Now this seals up the National League and just like the East the Dodgers have nearly a 10 game lead on the Arizona Diamondbacks and considering how the Diamondbacks have been playing over the last couple weeks it is unlikely that they will be able to catch up to the Dodgers, especially since they will be having Kemp come back into their lineup soon enough.
NL Wild Card Winners: More obvious ones though surprising that both of them are coming out of the NL Central as thats usually the worst division over several years and wild cards usually came out of the East (Phillies or Nationals). So in this case I've got Pittsburgh and Cincinnati taking the Wild Card spots for the National League.
Wild Card Round:
Ok so for the wild card game I think that for the AL Oakland is going to come out on top and for the NL Pittsburgh is going to come out on top. Now again the reason I think Pittsburgh will win the NL is because they are honestly more of a complete team as they have a good blend of players and there bullpen and starters are solid where as the Reds have a bit of an issue with their bullpen, with exception to Aroldis Chapman. In addition to this their going to be getting back Starling Marte, Grilli and a few other star players back from the DL prior to this game. Now why do I think the Athletics are going to beat out the Red Sox? Well first off I'll point back to the fact that again I think the Red Sox have been playing above their actual talent level all year as most of their players are not nearly as good as they've been playing over the last 2-3 years, mainly guys like Johnny Gomes, Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, and a couple others. But like the Pirates the Athletics are getting some important players back from the DL before this playoff game, namely Bartolo Colon who has been a horse in their starting rotation and Brett Anderson.
ALDS Rounds:
Ok so in the ALDS I believe that the match ups are going to be Tampa vs. Detroit and Texas vs. Oakland. Though to be honest all of the top teams are currently within 1.5 games of each other for beat W-L record in the AL so it could go any way. But anyhow I expect that the winners of these two series are going to be Tampa and Oakland and the reason I believe that is because recently Miguel Cabrera has had to leave games with injuries, whether they are serious or not is irrelevant because if those things nag him into the post season the Tigers will be without their best player and on top of that the Tigers starting rotation has started to show signs of being human (that is Scherzer and Sanchez) as Scherzer almost lost the last game pretty badly if not for a very late game rally. Now why I think Oakland will win over Texas is for a couple reasons, the first being the people their getting back from the DL and the fact that Texas is missing a key player in Nelson Cruz thanks to the Biogenesis suspensions. The second reason is because of Ron Washington, who in my opinion is probably one of the worst managers in all of baseball and yea go ahead and harp on me for saying it but if you watch the Rangers World Series performances, Washington seems to lose his shit when they are a game or two away from winning the whole thing and just starts to make ridiculous moves, like bringing in Tommy Hunter to relieve despite the fact that he was supposed to start 2 days down the line.
NLDS Rounds:
Alrighty, so here I figure it's going to end up Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh and St. Louis vs. Los Angeles. Now the winners of these series is a bit more difficult as all teams have been playing amazingly but sadly I have to. SOOOO I think that Atlanta is going to win against Pittsburgh firstly and thats because they have pitching depth to spare and despite the injuries to their key bullpen guys they have managed to stay dominant pitching wise in the late innings. In addition to this their starters have been great and having really dominant young starters who hitters have little experience against is a god send, those being Alex Wood and Julio Tehran, not to mention the potential greatness of Brandon Beachy if he goes full force into the post season. As for against Pittsburgh they have been less active on the offensive than Atlanta has and given that plenty of Atlanta's starters are so key the Pirates will likely not get many opportunities to score runs. Now on the other side I'm going to take the less likes side and say the Dodgers are going to win it. Now for a long time I was convinced that the Cardinals were going to go to the WS and take it without a problem, however after seeing what the Dodgers have in their starting 3 pitchers and what Kershaw has been doing stat wise I have changed my mind because like Oakland the Dodgers are getting guys like Kemp and others back right before the post season kicks off and Brandon League has taken to his position in the bullpen instead of when he was closing earlier and the mightier strikeout machine Kenley Jannsen has taken over as closer.
ALCS Round:
Ok so after the ALDS that would make the ALCS a series between Tampa and Oakland and I think that Tampa will come out on top because of their stellar pitching that has been on since the beginning of the season and the trades they've recently made that have already been turning dividends and getting them more runs in must win games. On the other hand, despite Oakland having more players coming back off the DL they haven't really bolstered their offence or defence so I imagine that since the Rays have done the exact opposite they will have a fair advantage over them.
NLCS Round:
Ok well heres the NLCS and I'm guessing if this match up does come to fruition I expect that the Dodgers will win, however it honestly depends on some of the Atlanta hitters as most of them are fairly streaky and can be top 5 hitter level production one month then bottom 250 hitter production the next. Though because of this inconsistency and the consistency of players like Crawford, Puig and the entire pitching staff of the Dodgers I think they'd take the NLCS from the Braves.
World Series Matchup:
Ok so this makes the final match up for the WS the Tampa Bay Rays vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers. Now my personal opinion would be for the Rays to win as I always love seeing lower budget teams succeed, especially when a brilliant manager like Joe Maddon is at the helm of the team. However I believe that if this does come to fruition that the Dodgers will take it as when you look at the teams it's going to come down to a duel of the pitchers and while Price, and Cobb could take on the starters for the Dodgers, Kershaw, Grienke and Ryu, the other Rays pitchers, Archer, Moore, Hellickson and Hernandez, have yet to show that they can be consistently good over a long period of time and I think that is what would be the downfall of the Rays as they lack the hard hitting offence that the Dodgers have.
Ok guys, hope you enjoyed this one, so I'll put up another post late next week as things have been picking up on my end and it's getting pretty busy.
-Eric
AL:
East Winners: Tampa Bay Rays - Now the reason I think the Rays will take this division is because in my honest opinion, the Boston Red Sox having been playing over their heads for the entire year, that is to say EVERYTHING has gone right and nothing has gone wrong. So overall I think they will slip back and the Rays will win the division, I mean their only 2.5 games back at the moment so it's not all that farfetched idea to begin with.
Central Winners: Detroit Tigers - Now this is an obvious one but honestly for ages I've been in the group that has considered the Tigers INSANELY overrated. Now before you get your pitchforks for me going against Miggy and Verlander you have to remember that usually they aren't the top placed team in terms of win-loss record in the AL and several years they haven't even been 2nd. That of course means that their percent win-loss was below that of the AL West and/or AL East winners and thats even more disturbing when you consider that about half of their games are against division rivals, and honestly do you think that a team would have a harder time against the East teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays) where all the teams are in hitter friendly parks and with high end teams or Central teams (Twins, Royals, Indians, Tigers and White Sox) who are balanced in terms of pitcher parks vs hitter parks. Now after looking after looking at that and considering the amount of talent that the Tigers have and the weak schedule they have, them finishing with less than the highest W-L percentage in the AL is disturbing. Anyhow Tigers should take the Central no problem.
West Winners: Texas Rangers - Not much discussion here, there is a bit of a close call with the Oakland A's right now but considering that the Rangers have been on a roll lately and have a better rest of the schedule than Oakland I expect they will be the ones to stand atop the AL West.
AL Wild Card Winners: Ok so the wild card winners I've picked up are the other two teams I spoke about in the West and East winners, that being the Oakland Athletics and the Boston Red Sox.
NL:
East Winners: Atlanta Braves - No question here as the the Braves have been dominating the NL East and they have a 13 game lead on the 2nd place Nationals so there is no hope of anyone catching them during the rest of the month.
Central Winners: St. Louis Cardinals - Now again this seems like a no brainer but the main reason I think the Cardinals are going to take it over the Pirates is because as I previously mentioned in my Last Month post, the Pirates have a series of games against the Reds in the last month and some middle of the road or somewhat difficult opponents where as the Cardinals have games against nearly all below .500 teams.
West Winners: Los Angeles Dodgers: Now this seals up the National League and just like the East the Dodgers have nearly a 10 game lead on the Arizona Diamondbacks and considering how the Diamondbacks have been playing over the last couple weeks it is unlikely that they will be able to catch up to the Dodgers, especially since they will be having Kemp come back into their lineup soon enough.
NL Wild Card Winners: More obvious ones though surprising that both of them are coming out of the NL Central as thats usually the worst division over several years and wild cards usually came out of the East (Phillies or Nationals). So in this case I've got Pittsburgh and Cincinnati taking the Wild Card spots for the National League.
Wild Card Round:
Ok so for the wild card game I think that for the AL Oakland is going to come out on top and for the NL Pittsburgh is going to come out on top. Now again the reason I think Pittsburgh will win the NL is because they are honestly more of a complete team as they have a good blend of players and there bullpen and starters are solid where as the Reds have a bit of an issue with their bullpen, with exception to Aroldis Chapman. In addition to this their going to be getting back Starling Marte, Grilli and a few other star players back from the DL prior to this game. Now why do I think the Athletics are going to beat out the Red Sox? Well first off I'll point back to the fact that again I think the Red Sox have been playing above their actual talent level all year as most of their players are not nearly as good as they've been playing over the last 2-3 years, mainly guys like Johnny Gomes, Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, and a couple others. But like the Pirates the Athletics are getting some important players back from the DL before this playoff game, namely Bartolo Colon who has been a horse in their starting rotation and Brett Anderson.
ALDS Rounds:
Ok so in the ALDS I believe that the match ups are going to be Tampa vs. Detroit and Texas vs. Oakland. Though to be honest all of the top teams are currently within 1.5 games of each other for beat W-L record in the AL so it could go any way. But anyhow I expect that the winners of these two series are going to be Tampa and Oakland and the reason I believe that is because recently Miguel Cabrera has had to leave games with injuries, whether they are serious or not is irrelevant because if those things nag him into the post season the Tigers will be without their best player and on top of that the Tigers starting rotation has started to show signs of being human (that is Scherzer and Sanchez) as Scherzer almost lost the last game pretty badly if not for a very late game rally. Now why I think Oakland will win over Texas is for a couple reasons, the first being the people their getting back from the DL and the fact that Texas is missing a key player in Nelson Cruz thanks to the Biogenesis suspensions. The second reason is because of Ron Washington, who in my opinion is probably one of the worst managers in all of baseball and yea go ahead and harp on me for saying it but if you watch the Rangers World Series performances, Washington seems to lose his shit when they are a game or two away from winning the whole thing and just starts to make ridiculous moves, like bringing in Tommy Hunter to relieve despite the fact that he was supposed to start 2 days down the line.
NLDS Rounds:
Alrighty, so here I figure it's going to end up Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh and St. Louis vs. Los Angeles. Now the winners of these series is a bit more difficult as all teams have been playing amazingly but sadly I have to. SOOOO I think that Atlanta is going to win against Pittsburgh firstly and thats because they have pitching depth to spare and despite the injuries to their key bullpen guys they have managed to stay dominant pitching wise in the late innings. In addition to this their starters have been great and having really dominant young starters who hitters have little experience against is a god send, those being Alex Wood and Julio Tehran, not to mention the potential greatness of Brandon Beachy if he goes full force into the post season. As for against Pittsburgh they have been less active on the offensive than Atlanta has and given that plenty of Atlanta's starters are so key the Pirates will likely not get many opportunities to score runs. Now on the other side I'm going to take the less likes side and say the Dodgers are going to win it. Now for a long time I was convinced that the Cardinals were going to go to the WS and take it without a problem, however after seeing what the Dodgers have in their starting 3 pitchers and what Kershaw has been doing stat wise I have changed my mind because like Oakland the Dodgers are getting guys like Kemp and others back right before the post season kicks off and Brandon League has taken to his position in the bullpen instead of when he was closing earlier and the mightier strikeout machine Kenley Jannsen has taken over as closer.
ALCS Round:
Ok so after the ALDS that would make the ALCS a series between Tampa and Oakland and I think that Tampa will come out on top because of their stellar pitching that has been on since the beginning of the season and the trades they've recently made that have already been turning dividends and getting them more runs in must win games. On the other hand, despite Oakland having more players coming back off the DL they haven't really bolstered their offence or defence so I imagine that since the Rays have done the exact opposite they will have a fair advantage over them.
NLCS Round:
Ok well heres the NLCS and I'm guessing if this match up does come to fruition I expect that the Dodgers will win, however it honestly depends on some of the Atlanta hitters as most of them are fairly streaky and can be top 5 hitter level production one month then bottom 250 hitter production the next. Though because of this inconsistency and the consistency of players like Crawford, Puig and the entire pitching staff of the Dodgers I think they'd take the NLCS from the Braves.
World Series Matchup:
Ok so this makes the final match up for the WS the Tampa Bay Rays vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers. Now my personal opinion would be for the Rays to win as I always love seeing lower budget teams succeed, especially when a brilliant manager like Joe Maddon is at the helm of the team. However I believe that if this does come to fruition that the Dodgers will take it as when you look at the teams it's going to come down to a duel of the pitchers and while Price, and Cobb could take on the starters for the Dodgers, Kershaw, Grienke and Ryu, the other Rays pitchers, Archer, Moore, Hellickson and Hernandez, have yet to show that they can be consistently good over a long period of time and I think that is what would be the downfall of the Rays as they lack the hard hitting offence that the Dodgers have.
Ok guys, hope you enjoyed this one, so I'll put up another post late next week as things have been picking up on my end and it's getting pretty busy.
-Eric
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
End Of Year Award Predictions
Ok so one of the major things people should be thinking about as the final month of the baseball season winds down is who, of the greatest players this year deserve the various end of year awards. Those are the AL MVP, Cy Young and Rookie Of The Year in addition to the NL MVP, Cy Young and Rookie Of The Year, so I'll be going over who I think should win those awards and why. We'll start off with the AL.
AL:
MVP: Well this seems like this one is pretty much a no brainer, so my thoughts have this one going to Miguel Cabrera again. Now this would be a bit of a different story if Chris Davis was keeping up the pace he was setting himself up for during the first few months of the season but Cabrera has been holding top spot in nearly all batting categories except HR including some of the additional stats (OBP, OPS and SLG). And it's not just that he's leading those categories it's that he's destroying them, as in nearly all categories only the 2nd place guy is anywhere near him. For example in HR Chris Davis currently leads with 46, with Miggy just behind at 43 and the next best is Edwin Encarnacion at 33, a full 10 home runs below Cabrera. If that doesn't scream MVP I don't know what does.
Cy Young: Now this one gets a bit foggy as there are 2-3 pitchers that could take this for varying reasons. Now, my opinion is probably not going fall in line with the popular belief but I think that the award should go to Yu Darvish. Now plenty of people are going to be up in arms about me not giving it to Scherzer, now I do respect what Max is doing this season I don't pretend to forget that darvish has been the lead in strikeouts by nearly 30, Darvish is 3rd in ERA and is only off the first place pitcher (Anibal Sanchez) by 0.07 (better than Scherzer), is only slightly below Scherzer in WHIP and right behind Scherzer in all other categories. Then of course let's not forget that if you watch him pitch you'll notice not only is his power still the same as it was last year but he's picked up the control as well and as a result is kicking ass even more than the previous season.
Rookie Of The Year: Another slightly difficult decision to make on this one, mainly because there aren't any real big stand outs like that last year, but I suppose the closest to the right pick for this would be Tampa Bay outfielder Wil Myers. Now Myers hasn't been perfect or anything to that extent but to be honest he's the best of a fairly thin selection this year so there isn't really another quality rookie to pick in that case.
NL:
MVP: Ok so heres another one that didn't necessarily have a no questions asked winner, though again I expect people may not agree with the prediction I'm making for this one but my winner of the MVP is Clayton Kershaw. Now yea I realize pitchers don't usually win this thing unless under extreme circumstances and to be honest everything about Kershaw's stat line is ridiculous with exception to his Win-Loss record, which is near meaningless to begin with. The fact that there is only 1 month of baseball left and he's posting the lowest ERA and WHIP since 1968 should tell you all you need to know, not only that but he's also just barely behind Matt Harvey in strikeouts in the NL and he's aiming for a career high innings pitched and that's not including innings he'll likely pick up during the playoffs. Now if that doesn't convince you take a look at this stat line: 2.40 ERA, 24-5 W-L, 251.0 IP, 53 BB, 250 Ks, 0.92 WHIP, those stats belong to the 2011 MVP, Justin Verlander. Now what you should know is that Kershaw is shattering Verlander's MVP ERA and WHIP (1.72 and 0.85), he's on his way to about 235-240 strikeouts, nearly in line with Verlander's MVP season and he's poised to walk about the same amount as well. All in all this pretty much slots Kershaw in for winner of the MVP in my mind, though the common argument against it is that his W-L record isn't nearly that of Verlander's and while that may be true the Dodgers have had serious injuries to their star players and as a result he hasn't gotten the run support necessary to get those precious wins, hence why his win total is only at 13 despite having pitched twice that many games and if you need any more proof of that notice that his FIP is actually 1.44, a bit lower than his current ERA and his xFIP is still under 2.00 as well. So if you don't think Kershaw deserves this take a good hard look at the stats then come back.
Cy Young: Ok so after what I just said about Kershaw in the MVP paragraph I'm sure you can guess I'm giving him unanimous for the Cy Young, no conversation required.
Rookie Of The Year: Now this one again is a hard one as there are many front runners, be it Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez or Yasiel Puig. Now if you just look at what all three of these players have done this year it's hard to pick one over the other because they've all been amazing however I have to narrow down to one person and that player is Yasiel Puig. The reason I chose Puig over the other two is because not only did he put up amazing stats for the first month of his career but even when it looked like he was going to hit a prolonged slump he figured it out and jumped back into it, hell he's still hitting in the .350's, tut thats not the main reason why I chose him. The reason I chose him is because he got the call up when the Dodgers were without Kemp, Ethier and overall a consistent offensive performance but Puig not only brought that offensive presence but he also kick started the Dodgers as a team back into action, which can be seen in the pick up of the Dodger's games won and run differential increase from the time Puig joined the game. In addition to this we have seen that Puig is very much the definition of a five tool player, he has an amazing glove, can easily hit for power and average, he's got speed on the base paths sure enough to steal bases and he has a cannon for an arm that has allowed him to make some ridiculous throw outs. This is really what sets him apart from the others because he not only delivers on the offensive side but in all aspects f the game he can help in and was responsible for getting the Dodgers back on track towards a playoff push.
-Eric
AL:
MVP: Well this seems like this one is pretty much a no brainer, so my thoughts have this one going to Miguel Cabrera again. Now this would be a bit of a different story if Chris Davis was keeping up the pace he was setting himself up for during the first few months of the season but Cabrera has been holding top spot in nearly all batting categories except HR including some of the additional stats (OBP, OPS and SLG). And it's not just that he's leading those categories it's that he's destroying them, as in nearly all categories only the 2nd place guy is anywhere near him. For example in HR Chris Davis currently leads with 46, with Miggy just behind at 43 and the next best is Edwin Encarnacion at 33, a full 10 home runs below Cabrera. If that doesn't scream MVP I don't know what does.
Cy Young: Now this one gets a bit foggy as there are 2-3 pitchers that could take this for varying reasons. Now, my opinion is probably not going fall in line with the popular belief but I think that the award should go to Yu Darvish. Now plenty of people are going to be up in arms about me not giving it to Scherzer, now I do respect what Max is doing this season I don't pretend to forget that darvish has been the lead in strikeouts by nearly 30, Darvish is 3rd in ERA and is only off the first place pitcher (Anibal Sanchez) by 0.07 (better than Scherzer), is only slightly below Scherzer in WHIP and right behind Scherzer in all other categories. Then of course let's not forget that if you watch him pitch you'll notice not only is his power still the same as it was last year but he's picked up the control as well and as a result is kicking ass even more than the previous season.
Rookie Of The Year: Another slightly difficult decision to make on this one, mainly because there aren't any real big stand outs like that last year, but I suppose the closest to the right pick for this would be Tampa Bay outfielder Wil Myers. Now Myers hasn't been perfect or anything to that extent but to be honest he's the best of a fairly thin selection this year so there isn't really another quality rookie to pick in that case.
NL:
MVP: Ok so heres another one that didn't necessarily have a no questions asked winner, though again I expect people may not agree with the prediction I'm making for this one but my winner of the MVP is Clayton Kershaw. Now yea I realize pitchers don't usually win this thing unless under extreme circumstances and to be honest everything about Kershaw's stat line is ridiculous with exception to his Win-Loss record, which is near meaningless to begin with. The fact that there is only 1 month of baseball left and he's posting the lowest ERA and WHIP since 1968 should tell you all you need to know, not only that but he's also just barely behind Matt Harvey in strikeouts in the NL and he's aiming for a career high innings pitched and that's not including innings he'll likely pick up during the playoffs. Now if that doesn't convince you take a look at this stat line: 2.40 ERA, 24-5 W-L, 251.0 IP, 53 BB, 250 Ks, 0.92 WHIP, those stats belong to the 2011 MVP, Justin Verlander. Now what you should know is that Kershaw is shattering Verlander's MVP ERA and WHIP (1.72 and 0.85), he's on his way to about 235-240 strikeouts, nearly in line with Verlander's MVP season and he's poised to walk about the same amount as well. All in all this pretty much slots Kershaw in for winner of the MVP in my mind, though the common argument against it is that his W-L record isn't nearly that of Verlander's and while that may be true the Dodgers have had serious injuries to their star players and as a result he hasn't gotten the run support necessary to get those precious wins, hence why his win total is only at 13 despite having pitched twice that many games and if you need any more proof of that notice that his FIP is actually 1.44, a bit lower than his current ERA and his xFIP is still under 2.00 as well. So if you don't think Kershaw deserves this take a good hard look at the stats then come back.
Cy Young: Ok so after what I just said about Kershaw in the MVP paragraph I'm sure you can guess I'm giving him unanimous for the Cy Young, no conversation required.
Rookie Of The Year: Now this one again is a hard one as there are many front runners, be it Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez or Yasiel Puig. Now if you just look at what all three of these players have done this year it's hard to pick one over the other because they've all been amazing however I have to narrow down to one person and that player is Yasiel Puig. The reason I chose Puig over the other two is because not only did he put up amazing stats for the first month of his career but even when it looked like he was going to hit a prolonged slump he figured it out and jumped back into it, hell he's still hitting in the .350's, tut thats not the main reason why I chose him. The reason I chose him is because he got the call up when the Dodgers were without Kemp, Ethier and overall a consistent offensive performance but Puig not only brought that offensive presence but he also kick started the Dodgers as a team back into action, which can be seen in the pick up of the Dodger's games won and run differential increase from the time Puig joined the game. In addition to this we have seen that Puig is very much the definition of a five tool player, he has an amazing glove, can easily hit for power and average, he's got speed on the base paths sure enough to steal bases and he has a cannon for an arm that has allowed him to make some ridiculous throw outs. This is really what sets him apart from the others because he not only delivers on the offensive side but in all aspects f the game he can help in and was responsible for getting the Dodgers back on track towards a playoff push.
-Eric
Friday, August 23, 2013
Bird Watch: Down To The Last Month
Ok so we're down to the last leg of the race for the a playoff spot and well needless to say we have all three of the teams in varying positions. The Blue Jays are 100% out of the running and have been playing worse as the days go by, so much as to lose to Houston the other day, the Orioles are holding on but are nearing the back of the pack for the wild card in the AL and the Cardinals are so far ahead of the rest of the wild card teams that they've nearly got a guaranteed spot, it just comes down to whether they can steal the NL Central from the Pirates or not because if they can't they'll have to play that dreaded 1 game playoff agains the other wild card team (likely the Reds). So for the interest of time I'm not even going to mention the Jays as they've been playing awful, so there isn't much reason the mention them and as a Jays fan it just hurts to look at how bad they are currently.
The Orioles:
Alright so the Orioles here have been sitting anywhere in the top 3 spots of the AL East all season, flopping anywhere from 1st to 3rd, now there is still hope for them to win the division as they are only 4.5 games especially since they have played 3 games less than the Red Sox. Recently however the Orioles haven't been playing terribly well as they've begun to slump back into playing games that they win or lose by only 1 or 2 runs and considering that their closer Jim Johnson has begun to have a bit of a bad luck streak and they overall don't have the same sort of close game winning finesse that they did last year it is entirely possible that they may come up a bit short in the run for a playoff spot especially with the Rays playing as well as they have been not to mention getting back Matt Moore and Alex Cobb, two of the teams biggest starters. Now the rest of Baltimore's schedule is quite difficult as all but 3 of their series for the remainder of the year are against teams that are a fair bit over .500 and have been playing solidly over the last month or so but whether that is a positive or negative all depends on how you look at it because 3 of those remaining 10 series are against Boston or Tampa, the teams they need to get a leg up on in order to make the playoffs as the AL East champs so those games are worth even more to the Orioles down the stretch in addition another 4 of those series are against teams who are just ahead or behind them in the wild card standings so nearly all of them are worth a great deal. On the other hand however the under .500 teams the Orioles are facing have been seen to show a bit of a fight every now and then (specifically the Jays) so if they closer and bullpen struggles continue it may be more difficult for them to gain ground when they should be. All in all it's likely going to be pretty tight as there are 5 teams vying for the 2 wild cards in the AL and all of them within 4 games of each other.
The Cardinals:
Ok so the Cardinals, unlike the Orioles are in a pretty interesting position as 3 of the teams in their division, including themselves, have dominated the playoff spots and are pretty much a lock for the playoffs as the closest team to any of them is still 7 games out and the Diamondbacks unfortunately haven't really shown any signs of a potential winning surge coming up anytime soon. Now if we look at those 3 teams, the Pirates, the Reds and the Cardinals, we notice that they are all within 3.5 games of each other meaning this is going to come down the wire. Now of course I don't mean that in terms of securing a playoff spots I mean it in the sense that obviously the team wants to win the division so they don't have to risk that extra playoff series against the other wild card team. Now when we look at the schedules for these teams we notice that the Cardinals are actually in the best shape and thats because they have 2 series against these other two competitive NL Central teams then their remaining games are against under .500 NL opponents that should honestly make for some pretty easy wins down the stretch. Now what makes their schedule more favourable than that of the Reds and the Pirates is that despite the Reds/Pirates also having series against these weaker teams as well they face each other in 2 series during September excluding any series they have against the Cardinals. So what this means is that as the Cardinals are beating up on weak teams like the Mets or the Brewers the Reds and Pirates are going to be knocking each other around making it a little easier for the Cardinals to sneak into first place in the NL Central. Overall it should be interesting to see what happens with this interesting clump of teams in the NL Central as it has historically been thought of as one of the weakest divisions in the MLB.
Ok so thats all for the remainder of this week but I'm going to be doing a major award prediction post sometime next week and likely also a post in regards to my thoughts on the potentially playoff bound teams.
-Eric
The Orioles:
Alright so the Orioles here have been sitting anywhere in the top 3 spots of the AL East all season, flopping anywhere from 1st to 3rd, now there is still hope for them to win the division as they are only 4.5 games especially since they have played 3 games less than the Red Sox. Recently however the Orioles haven't been playing terribly well as they've begun to slump back into playing games that they win or lose by only 1 or 2 runs and considering that their closer Jim Johnson has begun to have a bit of a bad luck streak and they overall don't have the same sort of close game winning finesse that they did last year it is entirely possible that they may come up a bit short in the run for a playoff spot especially with the Rays playing as well as they have been not to mention getting back Matt Moore and Alex Cobb, two of the teams biggest starters. Now the rest of Baltimore's schedule is quite difficult as all but 3 of their series for the remainder of the year are against teams that are a fair bit over .500 and have been playing solidly over the last month or so but whether that is a positive or negative all depends on how you look at it because 3 of those remaining 10 series are against Boston or Tampa, the teams they need to get a leg up on in order to make the playoffs as the AL East champs so those games are worth even more to the Orioles down the stretch in addition another 4 of those series are against teams who are just ahead or behind them in the wild card standings so nearly all of them are worth a great deal. On the other hand however the under .500 teams the Orioles are facing have been seen to show a bit of a fight every now and then (specifically the Jays) so if they closer and bullpen struggles continue it may be more difficult for them to gain ground when they should be. All in all it's likely going to be pretty tight as there are 5 teams vying for the 2 wild cards in the AL and all of them within 4 games of each other.
The Cardinals:
Ok so the Cardinals, unlike the Orioles are in a pretty interesting position as 3 of the teams in their division, including themselves, have dominated the playoff spots and are pretty much a lock for the playoffs as the closest team to any of them is still 7 games out and the Diamondbacks unfortunately haven't really shown any signs of a potential winning surge coming up anytime soon. Now if we look at those 3 teams, the Pirates, the Reds and the Cardinals, we notice that they are all within 3.5 games of each other meaning this is going to come down the wire. Now of course I don't mean that in terms of securing a playoff spots I mean it in the sense that obviously the team wants to win the division so they don't have to risk that extra playoff series against the other wild card team. Now when we look at the schedules for these teams we notice that the Cardinals are actually in the best shape and thats because they have 2 series against these other two competitive NL Central teams then their remaining games are against under .500 NL opponents that should honestly make for some pretty easy wins down the stretch. Now what makes their schedule more favourable than that of the Reds and the Pirates is that despite the Reds/Pirates also having series against these weaker teams as well they face each other in 2 series during September excluding any series they have against the Cardinals. So what this means is that as the Cardinals are beating up on weak teams like the Mets or the Brewers the Reds and Pirates are going to be knocking each other around making it a little easier for the Cardinals to sneak into first place in the NL Central. Overall it should be interesting to see what happens with this interesting clump of teams in the NL Central as it has historically been thought of as one of the weakest divisions in the MLB.
Ok so thats all for the remainder of this week but I'm going to be doing a major award prediction post sometime next week and likely also a post in regards to my thoughts on the potentially playoff bound teams.
-Eric
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)