So not much has changed in the past couple weeks for the 3 bird teams. The Cardinals continue to dominate, the Orioles are continuing their usual pace keeping them in the running for a playoff spot and the Jays are winning a decent amount of games but doing it with fairly poor offence.
Now the expanded version? Well for the Cardinals and the Orioles there isn't really one. When looking at the Cardinals their pitching and hitting has been as dominant as ever, even so much as to score 10 runs against Cincinnati in their last game and considering how well thought off the Reds are that is an accomplishment in and of itself. On the Orioles front we are seeing their same method of winning, pulling out older pitchers and flipping them into at least semi-reliable starters and backing them with their killer offence, specifically composed of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Manny Machado (though I'd be an idiot to say that the rest of the team isn't doing anything hitting wise). Their pace of winning will easily place them at or near a playoff spot with ease and if the Yankees and Red Sox let up in their performance even a little bit the Orioles will over take them, not much breathing room is being given to those at the top in the AL East.
Now on the Blue Jays side there is a little more to it, most fans just look at the results of each game, see a decent number of runs scored and a win then think 'HEY, our team is playing well!'. However they couldn't be more wrong about that. If you were to look at one stat you would discover that the Jays wins haven't been all that clean or good on the offensive side. Now what stat is that? Well its the teams batting avg with runnings in scoring position. Now defines a 'runner in scoring position' is when a runner is at 2nd base or 3rd and could potentially be driven in by any type of hit. Now if you look at the last series against Texas and the latest game against the White Sox you will see that the Jays have had an avg with RISP of 1/1, 2/17, 2/7 and 1/11. So in essence their not hitting the ball when it counts, which is a problem because a good deal of these games can be close in score an if the team was to make it to the playoffs I can guarantee that close wouldn't cut it in facing teams like the Cardinals or the Tigers, especially considering how good their pitching has been. Not to mention having J.P. Arencibia in the dead centre of the batting order has pretty much guaranteed an out for the other team with his TERRIBLE plate discipline and since our back end of the order isn't that strong at the plate, what with Lawrie and Reyes injured, they are all more or less fairly easy outs as well (their plate discipline isn't all that great either). So basically fans need to re-evaluate what they think is the Jays playing well.
What we can draw from this is that the Cardinals and the Orioles are pretty much a shoe in for a spot in the playoffs, though at current situation the Orioles are more likely to make it through the Wild Card. The other thing is that unless there is an improvement in offence for the Jays they can kiss their playoff dreams for this year good bye.
-Eric
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