Ok so whats all on every baseball fans minds at this point? Who is going to the playoffs, thats what! Well there are some obvious teams that are going to the playoffs, however there are still some battles for division 1st place or wild cards still going on that means a lot so in essence I'm going to give you what teams I think are going to be going to the playoffs and whose going to go how far.
AL:
East Winners: Tampa Bay Rays - Now the reason I think the Rays will take this division is because in my honest opinion, the Boston Red Sox having been playing over their heads for the entire year, that is to say EVERYTHING has gone right and nothing has gone wrong. So overall I think they will slip back and the Rays will win the division, I mean their only 2.5 games back at the moment so it's not all that farfetched idea to begin with.
Central Winners: Detroit Tigers - Now this is an obvious one but honestly for ages I've been in the group that has considered the Tigers INSANELY overrated. Now before you get your pitchforks for me going against Miggy and Verlander you have to remember that usually they aren't the top placed team in terms of win-loss record in the AL and several years they haven't even been 2nd. That of course means that their percent win-loss was below that of the AL West and/or AL East winners and thats even more disturbing when you consider that about half of their games are against division rivals, and honestly do you think that a team would have a harder time against the East teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays) where all the teams are in hitter friendly parks and with high end teams or Central teams (Twins, Royals, Indians, Tigers and White Sox) who are balanced in terms of pitcher parks vs hitter parks. Now after looking after looking at that and considering the amount of talent that the Tigers have and the weak schedule they have, them finishing with less than the highest W-L percentage in the AL is disturbing. Anyhow Tigers should take the Central no problem.
West Winners: Texas Rangers - Not much discussion here, there is a bit of a close call with the Oakland A's right now but considering that the Rangers have been on a roll lately and have a better rest of the schedule than Oakland I expect they will be the ones to stand atop the AL West.
AL Wild Card Winners: Ok so the wild card winners I've picked up are the other two teams I spoke about in the West and East winners, that being the Oakland Athletics and the Boston Red Sox.
NL:
East Winners: Atlanta Braves - No question here as the the Braves have been dominating the NL East and they have a 13 game lead on the 2nd place Nationals so there is no hope of anyone catching them during the rest of the month.
Central Winners: St. Louis Cardinals - Now again this seems like a no brainer but the main reason I think the Cardinals are going to take it over the Pirates is because as I previously mentioned in my Last Month post, the Pirates have a series of games against the Reds in the last month and some middle of the road or somewhat difficult opponents where as the Cardinals have games against nearly all below .500 teams.
West Winners: Los Angeles Dodgers: Now this seals up the National League and just like the East the Dodgers have nearly a 10 game lead on the Arizona Diamondbacks and considering how the Diamondbacks have been playing over the last couple weeks it is unlikely that they will be able to catch up to the Dodgers, especially since they will be having Kemp come back into their lineup soon enough.
NL Wild Card Winners: More obvious ones though surprising that both of them are coming out of the NL Central as thats usually the worst division over several years and wild cards usually came out of the East (Phillies or Nationals). So in this case I've got Pittsburgh and Cincinnati taking the Wild Card spots for the National League.
Wild Card Round:
Ok so for the wild card game I think that for the AL Oakland is going to come out on top and for the NL Pittsburgh is going to come out on top. Now again the reason I think Pittsburgh will win the NL is because they are honestly more of a complete team as they have a good blend of players and there bullpen and starters are solid where as the Reds have a bit of an issue with their bullpen, with exception to Aroldis Chapman. In addition to this their going to be getting back Starling Marte, Grilli and a few other star players back from the DL prior to this game. Now why do I think the Athletics are going to beat out the Red Sox? Well first off I'll point back to the fact that again I think the Red Sox have been playing above their actual talent level all year as most of their players are not nearly as good as they've been playing over the last 2-3 years, mainly guys like Johnny Gomes, Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, and a couple others. But like the Pirates the Athletics are getting some important players back from the DL before this playoff game, namely Bartolo Colon who has been a horse in their starting rotation and Brett Anderson.
ALDS Rounds:
Ok so in the ALDS I believe that the match ups are going to be Tampa vs. Detroit and Texas vs. Oakland. Though to be honest all of the top teams are currently within 1.5 games of each other for beat W-L record in the AL so it could go any way. But anyhow I expect that the winners of these two series are going to be Tampa and Oakland and the reason I believe that is because recently Miguel Cabrera has had to leave games with injuries, whether they are serious or not is irrelevant because if those things nag him into the post season the Tigers will be without their best player and on top of that the Tigers starting rotation has started to show signs of being human (that is Scherzer and Sanchez) as Scherzer almost lost the last game pretty badly if not for a very late game rally. Now why I think Oakland will win over Texas is for a couple reasons, the first being the people their getting back from the DL and the fact that Texas is missing a key player in Nelson Cruz thanks to the Biogenesis suspensions. The second reason is because of Ron Washington, who in my opinion is probably one of the worst managers in all of baseball and yea go ahead and harp on me for saying it but if you watch the Rangers World Series performances, Washington seems to lose his shit when they are a game or two away from winning the whole thing and just starts to make ridiculous moves, like bringing in Tommy Hunter to relieve despite the fact that he was supposed to start 2 days down the line.
NLDS Rounds:
Alrighty, so here I figure it's going to end up Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh and St. Louis vs. Los Angeles. Now the winners of these series is a bit more difficult as all teams have been playing amazingly but sadly I have to. SOOOO I think that Atlanta is going to win against Pittsburgh firstly and thats because they have pitching depth to spare and despite the injuries to their key bullpen guys they have managed to stay dominant pitching wise in the late innings. In addition to this their starters have been great and having really dominant young starters who hitters have little experience against is a god send, those being Alex Wood and Julio Tehran, not to mention the potential greatness of Brandon Beachy if he goes full force into the post season. As for against Pittsburgh they have been less active on the offensive than Atlanta has and given that plenty of Atlanta's starters are so key the Pirates will likely not get many opportunities to score runs. Now on the other side I'm going to take the less likes side and say the Dodgers are going to win it. Now for a long time I was convinced that the Cardinals were going to go to the WS and take it without a problem, however after seeing what the Dodgers have in their starting 3 pitchers and what Kershaw has been doing stat wise I have changed my mind because like Oakland the Dodgers are getting guys like Kemp and others back right before the post season kicks off and Brandon League has taken to his position in the bullpen instead of when he was closing earlier and the mightier strikeout machine Kenley Jannsen has taken over as closer.
ALCS Round:
Ok so after the ALDS that would make the ALCS a series between Tampa and Oakland and I think that Tampa will come out on top because of their stellar pitching that has been on since the beginning of the season and the trades they've recently made that have already been turning dividends and getting them more runs in must win games. On the other hand, despite Oakland having more players coming back off the DL they haven't really bolstered their offence or defence so I imagine that since the Rays have done the exact opposite they will have a fair advantage over them.
NLCS Round:
Ok well heres the NLCS and I'm guessing if this match up does come to fruition I expect that the Dodgers will win, however it honestly depends on some of the Atlanta hitters as most of them are fairly streaky and can be top 5 hitter level production one month then bottom 250 hitter production the next. Though because of this inconsistency and the consistency of players like Crawford, Puig and the entire pitching staff of the Dodgers I think they'd take the NLCS from the Braves.
World Series Matchup:
Ok so this makes the final match up for the WS the Tampa Bay Rays vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers. Now my personal opinion would be for the Rays to win as I always love seeing lower budget teams succeed, especially when a brilliant manager like Joe Maddon is at the helm of the team. However I believe that if this does come to fruition that the Dodgers will take it as when you look at the teams it's going to come down to a duel of the pitchers and while Price, and Cobb could take on the starters for the Dodgers, Kershaw, Grienke and Ryu, the other Rays pitchers, Archer, Moore, Hellickson and Hernandez, have yet to show that they can be consistently good over a long period of time and I think that is what would be the downfall of the Rays as they lack the hard hitting offence that the Dodgers have.
Ok guys, hope you enjoyed this one, so I'll put up another post late next week as things have been picking up on my end and it's getting pretty busy.
-Eric
Saturday, August 31, 2013
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
End Of Year Award Predictions
Ok so one of the major things people should be thinking about as the final month of the baseball season winds down is who, of the greatest players this year deserve the various end of year awards. Those are the AL MVP, Cy Young and Rookie Of The Year in addition to the NL MVP, Cy Young and Rookie Of The Year, so I'll be going over who I think should win those awards and why. We'll start off with the AL.
AL:
MVP: Well this seems like this one is pretty much a no brainer, so my thoughts have this one going to Miguel Cabrera again. Now this would be a bit of a different story if Chris Davis was keeping up the pace he was setting himself up for during the first few months of the season but Cabrera has been holding top spot in nearly all batting categories except HR including some of the additional stats (OBP, OPS and SLG). And it's not just that he's leading those categories it's that he's destroying them, as in nearly all categories only the 2nd place guy is anywhere near him. For example in HR Chris Davis currently leads with 46, with Miggy just behind at 43 and the next best is Edwin Encarnacion at 33, a full 10 home runs below Cabrera. If that doesn't scream MVP I don't know what does.
Cy Young: Now this one gets a bit foggy as there are 2-3 pitchers that could take this for varying reasons. Now, my opinion is probably not going fall in line with the popular belief but I think that the award should go to Yu Darvish. Now plenty of people are going to be up in arms about me not giving it to Scherzer, now I do respect what Max is doing this season I don't pretend to forget that darvish has been the lead in strikeouts by nearly 30, Darvish is 3rd in ERA and is only off the first place pitcher (Anibal Sanchez) by 0.07 (better than Scherzer), is only slightly below Scherzer in WHIP and right behind Scherzer in all other categories. Then of course let's not forget that if you watch him pitch you'll notice not only is his power still the same as it was last year but he's picked up the control as well and as a result is kicking ass even more than the previous season.
Rookie Of The Year: Another slightly difficult decision to make on this one, mainly because there aren't any real big stand outs like that last year, but I suppose the closest to the right pick for this would be Tampa Bay outfielder Wil Myers. Now Myers hasn't been perfect or anything to that extent but to be honest he's the best of a fairly thin selection this year so there isn't really another quality rookie to pick in that case.
NL:
MVP: Ok so heres another one that didn't necessarily have a no questions asked winner, though again I expect people may not agree with the prediction I'm making for this one but my winner of the MVP is Clayton Kershaw. Now yea I realize pitchers don't usually win this thing unless under extreme circumstances and to be honest everything about Kershaw's stat line is ridiculous with exception to his Win-Loss record, which is near meaningless to begin with. The fact that there is only 1 month of baseball left and he's posting the lowest ERA and WHIP since 1968 should tell you all you need to know, not only that but he's also just barely behind Matt Harvey in strikeouts in the NL and he's aiming for a career high innings pitched and that's not including innings he'll likely pick up during the playoffs. Now if that doesn't convince you take a look at this stat line: 2.40 ERA, 24-5 W-L, 251.0 IP, 53 BB, 250 Ks, 0.92 WHIP, those stats belong to the 2011 MVP, Justin Verlander. Now what you should know is that Kershaw is shattering Verlander's MVP ERA and WHIP (1.72 and 0.85), he's on his way to about 235-240 strikeouts, nearly in line with Verlander's MVP season and he's poised to walk about the same amount as well. All in all this pretty much slots Kershaw in for winner of the MVP in my mind, though the common argument against it is that his W-L record isn't nearly that of Verlander's and while that may be true the Dodgers have had serious injuries to their star players and as a result he hasn't gotten the run support necessary to get those precious wins, hence why his win total is only at 13 despite having pitched twice that many games and if you need any more proof of that notice that his FIP is actually 1.44, a bit lower than his current ERA and his xFIP is still under 2.00 as well. So if you don't think Kershaw deserves this take a good hard look at the stats then come back.
Cy Young: Ok so after what I just said about Kershaw in the MVP paragraph I'm sure you can guess I'm giving him unanimous for the Cy Young, no conversation required.
Rookie Of The Year: Now this one again is a hard one as there are many front runners, be it Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez or Yasiel Puig. Now if you just look at what all three of these players have done this year it's hard to pick one over the other because they've all been amazing however I have to narrow down to one person and that player is Yasiel Puig. The reason I chose Puig over the other two is because not only did he put up amazing stats for the first month of his career but even when it looked like he was going to hit a prolonged slump he figured it out and jumped back into it, hell he's still hitting in the .350's, tut thats not the main reason why I chose him. The reason I chose him is because he got the call up when the Dodgers were without Kemp, Ethier and overall a consistent offensive performance but Puig not only brought that offensive presence but he also kick started the Dodgers as a team back into action, which can be seen in the pick up of the Dodger's games won and run differential increase from the time Puig joined the game. In addition to this we have seen that Puig is very much the definition of a five tool player, he has an amazing glove, can easily hit for power and average, he's got speed on the base paths sure enough to steal bases and he has a cannon for an arm that has allowed him to make some ridiculous throw outs. This is really what sets him apart from the others because he not only delivers on the offensive side but in all aspects f the game he can help in and was responsible for getting the Dodgers back on track towards a playoff push.
-Eric
AL:
MVP: Well this seems like this one is pretty much a no brainer, so my thoughts have this one going to Miguel Cabrera again. Now this would be a bit of a different story if Chris Davis was keeping up the pace he was setting himself up for during the first few months of the season but Cabrera has been holding top spot in nearly all batting categories except HR including some of the additional stats (OBP, OPS and SLG). And it's not just that he's leading those categories it's that he's destroying them, as in nearly all categories only the 2nd place guy is anywhere near him. For example in HR Chris Davis currently leads with 46, with Miggy just behind at 43 and the next best is Edwin Encarnacion at 33, a full 10 home runs below Cabrera. If that doesn't scream MVP I don't know what does.
Cy Young: Now this one gets a bit foggy as there are 2-3 pitchers that could take this for varying reasons. Now, my opinion is probably not going fall in line with the popular belief but I think that the award should go to Yu Darvish. Now plenty of people are going to be up in arms about me not giving it to Scherzer, now I do respect what Max is doing this season I don't pretend to forget that darvish has been the lead in strikeouts by nearly 30, Darvish is 3rd in ERA and is only off the first place pitcher (Anibal Sanchez) by 0.07 (better than Scherzer), is only slightly below Scherzer in WHIP and right behind Scherzer in all other categories. Then of course let's not forget that if you watch him pitch you'll notice not only is his power still the same as it was last year but he's picked up the control as well and as a result is kicking ass even more than the previous season.
Rookie Of The Year: Another slightly difficult decision to make on this one, mainly because there aren't any real big stand outs like that last year, but I suppose the closest to the right pick for this would be Tampa Bay outfielder Wil Myers. Now Myers hasn't been perfect or anything to that extent but to be honest he's the best of a fairly thin selection this year so there isn't really another quality rookie to pick in that case.
NL:
MVP: Ok so heres another one that didn't necessarily have a no questions asked winner, though again I expect people may not agree with the prediction I'm making for this one but my winner of the MVP is Clayton Kershaw. Now yea I realize pitchers don't usually win this thing unless under extreme circumstances and to be honest everything about Kershaw's stat line is ridiculous with exception to his Win-Loss record, which is near meaningless to begin with. The fact that there is only 1 month of baseball left and he's posting the lowest ERA and WHIP since 1968 should tell you all you need to know, not only that but he's also just barely behind Matt Harvey in strikeouts in the NL and he's aiming for a career high innings pitched and that's not including innings he'll likely pick up during the playoffs. Now if that doesn't convince you take a look at this stat line: 2.40 ERA, 24-5 W-L, 251.0 IP, 53 BB, 250 Ks, 0.92 WHIP, those stats belong to the 2011 MVP, Justin Verlander. Now what you should know is that Kershaw is shattering Verlander's MVP ERA and WHIP (1.72 and 0.85), he's on his way to about 235-240 strikeouts, nearly in line with Verlander's MVP season and he's poised to walk about the same amount as well. All in all this pretty much slots Kershaw in for winner of the MVP in my mind, though the common argument against it is that his W-L record isn't nearly that of Verlander's and while that may be true the Dodgers have had serious injuries to their star players and as a result he hasn't gotten the run support necessary to get those precious wins, hence why his win total is only at 13 despite having pitched twice that many games and if you need any more proof of that notice that his FIP is actually 1.44, a bit lower than his current ERA and his xFIP is still under 2.00 as well. So if you don't think Kershaw deserves this take a good hard look at the stats then come back.
Cy Young: Ok so after what I just said about Kershaw in the MVP paragraph I'm sure you can guess I'm giving him unanimous for the Cy Young, no conversation required.
Rookie Of The Year: Now this one again is a hard one as there are many front runners, be it Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez or Yasiel Puig. Now if you just look at what all three of these players have done this year it's hard to pick one over the other because they've all been amazing however I have to narrow down to one person and that player is Yasiel Puig. The reason I chose Puig over the other two is because not only did he put up amazing stats for the first month of his career but even when it looked like he was going to hit a prolonged slump he figured it out and jumped back into it, hell he's still hitting in the .350's, tut thats not the main reason why I chose him. The reason I chose him is because he got the call up when the Dodgers were without Kemp, Ethier and overall a consistent offensive performance but Puig not only brought that offensive presence but he also kick started the Dodgers as a team back into action, which can be seen in the pick up of the Dodger's games won and run differential increase from the time Puig joined the game. In addition to this we have seen that Puig is very much the definition of a five tool player, he has an amazing glove, can easily hit for power and average, he's got speed on the base paths sure enough to steal bases and he has a cannon for an arm that has allowed him to make some ridiculous throw outs. This is really what sets him apart from the others because he not only delivers on the offensive side but in all aspects f the game he can help in and was responsible for getting the Dodgers back on track towards a playoff push.
-Eric
Friday, August 23, 2013
Bird Watch: Down To The Last Month
Ok so we're down to the last leg of the race for the a playoff spot and well needless to say we have all three of the teams in varying positions. The Blue Jays are 100% out of the running and have been playing worse as the days go by, so much as to lose to Houston the other day, the Orioles are holding on but are nearing the back of the pack for the wild card in the AL and the Cardinals are so far ahead of the rest of the wild card teams that they've nearly got a guaranteed spot, it just comes down to whether they can steal the NL Central from the Pirates or not because if they can't they'll have to play that dreaded 1 game playoff agains the other wild card team (likely the Reds). So for the interest of time I'm not even going to mention the Jays as they've been playing awful, so there isn't much reason the mention them and as a Jays fan it just hurts to look at how bad they are currently.
The Orioles:
Alright so the Orioles here have been sitting anywhere in the top 3 spots of the AL East all season, flopping anywhere from 1st to 3rd, now there is still hope for them to win the division as they are only 4.5 games especially since they have played 3 games less than the Red Sox. Recently however the Orioles haven't been playing terribly well as they've begun to slump back into playing games that they win or lose by only 1 or 2 runs and considering that their closer Jim Johnson has begun to have a bit of a bad luck streak and they overall don't have the same sort of close game winning finesse that they did last year it is entirely possible that they may come up a bit short in the run for a playoff spot especially with the Rays playing as well as they have been not to mention getting back Matt Moore and Alex Cobb, two of the teams biggest starters. Now the rest of Baltimore's schedule is quite difficult as all but 3 of their series for the remainder of the year are against teams that are a fair bit over .500 and have been playing solidly over the last month or so but whether that is a positive or negative all depends on how you look at it because 3 of those remaining 10 series are against Boston or Tampa, the teams they need to get a leg up on in order to make the playoffs as the AL East champs so those games are worth even more to the Orioles down the stretch in addition another 4 of those series are against teams who are just ahead or behind them in the wild card standings so nearly all of them are worth a great deal. On the other hand however the under .500 teams the Orioles are facing have been seen to show a bit of a fight every now and then (specifically the Jays) so if they closer and bullpen struggles continue it may be more difficult for them to gain ground when they should be. All in all it's likely going to be pretty tight as there are 5 teams vying for the 2 wild cards in the AL and all of them within 4 games of each other.
The Cardinals:
Ok so the Cardinals, unlike the Orioles are in a pretty interesting position as 3 of the teams in their division, including themselves, have dominated the playoff spots and are pretty much a lock for the playoffs as the closest team to any of them is still 7 games out and the Diamondbacks unfortunately haven't really shown any signs of a potential winning surge coming up anytime soon. Now if we look at those 3 teams, the Pirates, the Reds and the Cardinals, we notice that they are all within 3.5 games of each other meaning this is going to come down the wire. Now of course I don't mean that in terms of securing a playoff spots I mean it in the sense that obviously the team wants to win the division so they don't have to risk that extra playoff series against the other wild card team. Now when we look at the schedules for these teams we notice that the Cardinals are actually in the best shape and thats because they have 2 series against these other two competitive NL Central teams then their remaining games are against under .500 NL opponents that should honestly make for some pretty easy wins down the stretch. Now what makes their schedule more favourable than that of the Reds and the Pirates is that despite the Reds/Pirates also having series against these weaker teams as well they face each other in 2 series during September excluding any series they have against the Cardinals. So what this means is that as the Cardinals are beating up on weak teams like the Mets or the Brewers the Reds and Pirates are going to be knocking each other around making it a little easier for the Cardinals to sneak into first place in the NL Central. Overall it should be interesting to see what happens with this interesting clump of teams in the NL Central as it has historically been thought of as one of the weakest divisions in the MLB.
Ok so thats all for the remainder of this week but I'm going to be doing a major award prediction post sometime next week and likely also a post in regards to my thoughts on the potentially playoff bound teams.
-Eric
The Orioles:
Alright so the Orioles here have been sitting anywhere in the top 3 spots of the AL East all season, flopping anywhere from 1st to 3rd, now there is still hope for them to win the division as they are only 4.5 games especially since they have played 3 games less than the Red Sox. Recently however the Orioles haven't been playing terribly well as they've begun to slump back into playing games that they win or lose by only 1 or 2 runs and considering that their closer Jim Johnson has begun to have a bit of a bad luck streak and they overall don't have the same sort of close game winning finesse that they did last year it is entirely possible that they may come up a bit short in the run for a playoff spot especially with the Rays playing as well as they have been not to mention getting back Matt Moore and Alex Cobb, two of the teams biggest starters. Now the rest of Baltimore's schedule is quite difficult as all but 3 of their series for the remainder of the year are against teams that are a fair bit over .500 and have been playing solidly over the last month or so but whether that is a positive or negative all depends on how you look at it because 3 of those remaining 10 series are against Boston or Tampa, the teams they need to get a leg up on in order to make the playoffs as the AL East champs so those games are worth even more to the Orioles down the stretch in addition another 4 of those series are against teams who are just ahead or behind them in the wild card standings so nearly all of them are worth a great deal. On the other hand however the under .500 teams the Orioles are facing have been seen to show a bit of a fight every now and then (specifically the Jays) so if they closer and bullpen struggles continue it may be more difficult for them to gain ground when they should be. All in all it's likely going to be pretty tight as there are 5 teams vying for the 2 wild cards in the AL and all of them within 4 games of each other.
The Cardinals:
Ok so the Cardinals, unlike the Orioles are in a pretty interesting position as 3 of the teams in their division, including themselves, have dominated the playoff spots and are pretty much a lock for the playoffs as the closest team to any of them is still 7 games out and the Diamondbacks unfortunately haven't really shown any signs of a potential winning surge coming up anytime soon. Now if we look at those 3 teams, the Pirates, the Reds and the Cardinals, we notice that they are all within 3.5 games of each other meaning this is going to come down the wire. Now of course I don't mean that in terms of securing a playoff spots I mean it in the sense that obviously the team wants to win the division so they don't have to risk that extra playoff series against the other wild card team. Now when we look at the schedules for these teams we notice that the Cardinals are actually in the best shape and thats because they have 2 series against these other two competitive NL Central teams then their remaining games are against under .500 NL opponents that should honestly make for some pretty easy wins down the stretch. Now what makes their schedule more favourable than that of the Reds and the Pirates is that despite the Reds/Pirates also having series against these weaker teams as well they face each other in 2 series during September excluding any series they have against the Cardinals. So what this means is that as the Cardinals are beating up on weak teams like the Mets or the Brewers the Reds and Pirates are going to be knocking each other around making it a little easier for the Cardinals to sneak into first place in the NL Central. Overall it should be interesting to see what happens with this interesting clump of teams in the NL Central as it has historically been thought of as one of the weakest divisions in the MLB.
Ok so thats all for the remainder of this week but I'm going to be doing a major award prediction post sometime next week and likely also a post in regards to my thoughts on the potentially playoff bound teams.
-Eric
Monday, August 19, 2013
Lack Of Posts
Hey all, sorry for the lack of posts over the last couple weeks, I was back home in Canada for a wedding as well as some other important family events that had me really busy, anyhow I'm unpacking today but I will have some more content within the next couple days.
-Eric
-Eric
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
A Quick Guide How To Evaluate A Player
Ok so heres a quick guide on evaluating players, you can use this to see what to expect from new players to your team, figure out if a player is worth picking up in fantasy baseball, or even what to expect from call ups.
Look At The Situation:
Ok so first thing you should do in evaluating a player is first figure out what kind of situation your looking at, for instance is this a minor league call up who has no experience in the majors, a traded player, a high end free agent signing, a player returning from the DL, etc. Now the reason for this is because there are certain expectations you should have in these different situations because obviously a player returning from the DL will not likely jump back into the same production they had pre-injury the game they return to the lineup. Also don't forget to adjust for what ball park they are in as some are more hitter or pitcher friendly.
In addition to this if you hadn't noticed hitters that go to the AL generally get a bit of a break and thats because the pitching isn't as strong in the AL as it is in the NL (see pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Adam Wainwright, Matt Harvey, etc.) and the opposite applies to hitters moving from the AL to the NL, which is also amplified because the presence of the DH in the AL, which allows hitters more opportunities to get regular at bats. Now pitchers that move from the NL to the AL generally have a reduction in their stats again because the AL in a much harder hitting division and if their going from the AL to the NL expect an improvement to their stats. Now stat changes from going from one league to the other should be taken with a grain of salt and thats because it is doubtful that if an ace level pitcher like Felix Hernandez, Yu Darvish, Matt Harvey or Clayton Kershaw were to change leagues they wouldn't have that sharp of a decrease or increase as they have proven what they are as pitchers. The inverse can be said about crappy pitchers because you wouldn't expect say John Danks of the White Sox to move to the NL and get a huge boost in ability, and thats because he's a bad pitcher, so these things really only apply to those who are saddled in the middle of pitcher ratings and show potential in one way of another.
Now minor league call ups are another thing entirely, first off you should note which level of the minors they are coming from (low-A, high-A, AA, AAA, etc.) and then find out what league in the minors they were in, this is because certain leagues like the Pacific Coast League is a BIG TIME hitters league so hitters stats will obviously be skewed and inversely good pitching stats will look even better from this league. So again be thorough when looking at minor league records. As well as this standard research make sure you remember, and this is often forgotten by fans out there, that minor league players generally won't immediately start hitting/pitching what they were hitting/pitching like in the minors when they get called up and thats obviously because the pitching or hitting they will experience with their new major league team is FAR better than anything they faced in the minors.
Check Their Base Stats
After this you should look at their standard statistics, through sites like Baseball Reference, Fan Graphs or ESPN, those statistics being Runs, RBI, HR, SB and AVG for hitters or Wins, K, Saves, ERA and WHIP for pitchers, though saves only apply for relievers, but remember to focus on their previous numbers, those being years past in the majors or equivalent minors and career averages. These numbers should give you a brief idea of what they put on the board in a regular season and from there you can adjust based on the situations I went over above. So basically you should be slightly adjusting these stats given the situation.
Check The Averages
Ok so for this we should be looking at OBP, SLG, OPS, BB% and K% for hitters and then K/9, BB/9, K/BB, HR/9, K% and BB% for pitchers. Now I'll talk about these stats separated by hitters and pitchers. So the hitting averages are as follows, OBP and BB% will give you an idea or how much the batter walks as OBP (on base percentage) is their batting average plus inclusion of their walks and then BB% is the walk rate separated from OBP so if a hitter has a high walk rate it either means they are a big time hitter that pitchers are afraid of or they are patient at the plate and have a good approach, either way this is desirable in hitters. Then we have SLG and OPS, which represent power hitting and SLG plus OBP respectively, now these numbers give you a relatively brief look at what kind of power the hitter provides. Then finally for hitters there is the K%, which is obviously the % of times they strike out, and then tells us the opposite of the OBP and BB% of whether they have a bad approach at the plate or if they can't make consistent contact with the ball when they swing. On the pitchers side we first look at K/9 and K%, now these will tell us first what type of pitcher the 'subject' is because your typical 'ACE' level pitchers have K/9 ratios of about 9.0 or higher, the low end pitchers generally have 3.0-4.0 or sometimes lower than that so obviously the higher the strikeout % the more effective the pitcher is. Now this is not 100% true as there are also fly ball and ground ball pitchers so if a pitcher has a low K/9 and K% but you think their good look at their ERA and WHIP and if it's in the 3.00-4.00 and 1.00-1.50 marks then they are most likely are a contact pitcher, they will be talked about a little later too. Next up look at BB/9, BB% and K/BB, this will tell you how many batters the pitcher walks and overall is a good indicator of how much control a pitcher has over his pitches. The last of these averages in the HR/9 ratio, which gives us an idea of how susceptible the pitcher is to home runs, which may have to do with the park they are pitching in. After looking at these numbers you should have a better picture of how effective the hitter or pitcher is overall and usually these numbers tend to regress or increase to match or become close to the player's career average so you can tell whether they are expected to go up or down, but again consider the situation as you can't really make those assumptions about call ups or players who don't have a decent amount of experience in the majors, and thus a biased career average.
The Extra Shit:
Ok so the next set of stats are those to better look at a hitters power, speed and a pitchers performance, taking out defence and home runs, thats right we're going to ISO (isolated power) SPD (speed), FIP and xFIP. Now ISO is similar but slightly more accurate that SLG in terms of determining a players raw power at the plate and well thats because it uses SLG in it's calculation (SLG-AVG) so again treat this just like the other averages, expect it to turn to the players career average. Next up is SPD, pretty much the only indication of a players speed on the base path, now there are different versions of this stat as some websites or evaluators take different things into account when calculating it hence why there aren't really any other base stealing oriented stats available out there, but again treat it like other averages. Then we have FIP and xFIP, these 2 stats are nearly the same as both indicate where the pitcher's ERA should be if you took team defence out of the question, except xFIP removes home runs as well so if they are pitching in a homer prone park xFIP is the thing to look at. These stats generally are a better indicator of where the pitcher SHOULD be, so if the defence is in a slump expect the pitcher's ERA to improve over to his FIP or xFIP, however remember a shitty defence is still a shitty defence and thus if a pitcher say for the Astros has a FIP of 2.50 but an ERA of 4.30 it's not likely going to change as the Astros are just a bad and unexperienced team to begin with.
Types of Hits:
Ok so this area is important to both pitchers, so we're looking primarily at HR/FB and GB/FB for both hitters and pitchers. For hitters the HR/FB ratio is important a it indicates how many balls hit actually go out of the ball park, and just like everything sometimes it can seem a bit lopsided so expect it to move toward the career average, but also recognize when they have an excessively high ratio that is likely not sustainable, like if they have the same HR/FB ratio but have moved to a serious pitchers park. Now for pitchers it means something slightly different as this show how effective a pitcher is at getting fly balls because contact pitchers rely heavily on their ability to get fly balls that are easy for the outfielders to pick off, overall the same evaluation rules apply as to the HR/FB comparison of hitters. GB/FB ratio is in essence the same as the HR/FB for hitters but for pitchers it will show you what type of contact pitcher a player is and if it turns out they have a high GB/FB ratio, meaning their a ground ball pitcher, you should look at their LD% or line drive ratio to determine their overall effectiveness, as it is similar to the HR/FB ratio.
The All In One Stat:
Ok so there is ONE stat that is the mother of all stats as it was put together to take everything into account and that stat is WAR or Wins Above Replacement, basically the people who put this together basically said that this stat indicates how many games a team will win by having this player on their team instead of a player of average ability in all categories. In addition to standard WAR there are more specific break downs in oWAR (offensive WAR), dWAR (defensive WAR), etc. These act the same but are more accurate for the side they are looking at and overall WAR can be looked at similarly to the averages we went over previously.
All in all once you've looked at all of these stats your probably wondering,'What the hell do I do with these numbers?'. Well from here you need to think about what things can or have effected the numbers as compared to previous years or career averages and whether said change is legitimate or likely to change back to normal. Some situations would be reduced SPD/SB in a player that just got back from a hamstring injury, in that case of course those stats will be hampered but gradually they will come back to the norm but one shouldn't expect it to completely right itself considering the time lost and the fact that they WILL have a period of lacklustre performance in that category. So just remember when your going over all of this stuff be thorough because the more information you have on a player the more likely your predictions are to being correct.
-Eric
Look At The Situation:
Ok so first thing you should do in evaluating a player is first figure out what kind of situation your looking at, for instance is this a minor league call up who has no experience in the majors, a traded player, a high end free agent signing, a player returning from the DL, etc. Now the reason for this is because there are certain expectations you should have in these different situations because obviously a player returning from the DL will not likely jump back into the same production they had pre-injury the game they return to the lineup. Also don't forget to adjust for what ball park they are in as some are more hitter or pitcher friendly.
In addition to this if you hadn't noticed hitters that go to the AL generally get a bit of a break and thats because the pitching isn't as strong in the AL as it is in the NL (see pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Adam Wainwright, Matt Harvey, etc.) and the opposite applies to hitters moving from the AL to the NL, which is also amplified because the presence of the DH in the AL, which allows hitters more opportunities to get regular at bats. Now pitchers that move from the NL to the AL generally have a reduction in their stats again because the AL in a much harder hitting division and if their going from the AL to the NL expect an improvement to their stats. Now stat changes from going from one league to the other should be taken with a grain of salt and thats because it is doubtful that if an ace level pitcher like Felix Hernandez, Yu Darvish, Matt Harvey or Clayton Kershaw were to change leagues they wouldn't have that sharp of a decrease or increase as they have proven what they are as pitchers. The inverse can be said about crappy pitchers because you wouldn't expect say John Danks of the White Sox to move to the NL and get a huge boost in ability, and thats because he's a bad pitcher, so these things really only apply to those who are saddled in the middle of pitcher ratings and show potential in one way of another.
Now minor league call ups are another thing entirely, first off you should note which level of the minors they are coming from (low-A, high-A, AA, AAA, etc.) and then find out what league in the minors they were in, this is because certain leagues like the Pacific Coast League is a BIG TIME hitters league so hitters stats will obviously be skewed and inversely good pitching stats will look even better from this league. So again be thorough when looking at minor league records. As well as this standard research make sure you remember, and this is often forgotten by fans out there, that minor league players generally won't immediately start hitting/pitching what they were hitting/pitching like in the minors when they get called up and thats obviously because the pitching or hitting they will experience with their new major league team is FAR better than anything they faced in the minors.
Check Their Base Stats
After this you should look at their standard statistics, through sites like Baseball Reference, Fan Graphs or ESPN, those statistics being Runs, RBI, HR, SB and AVG for hitters or Wins, K, Saves, ERA and WHIP for pitchers, though saves only apply for relievers, but remember to focus on their previous numbers, those being years past in the majors or equivalent minors and career averages. These numbers should give you a brief idea of what they put on the board in a regular season and from there you can adjust based on the situations I went over above. So basically you should be slightly adjusting these stats given the situation.
Check The Averages
Ok so for this we should be looking at OBP, SLG, OPS, BB% and K% for hitters and then K/9, BB/9, K/BB, HR/9, K% and BB% for pitchers. Now I'll talk about these stats separated by hitters and pitchers. So the hitting averages are as follows, OBP and BB% will give you an idea or how much the batter walks as OBP (on base percentage) is their batting average plus inclusion of their walks and then BB% is the walk rate separated from OBP so if a hitter has a high walk rate it either means they are a big time hitter that pitchers are afraid of or they are patient at the plate and have a good approach, either way this is desirable in hitters. Then we have SLG and OPS, which represent power hitting and SLG plus OBP respectively, now these numbers give you a relatively brief look at what kind of power the hitter provides. Then finally for hitters there is the K%, which is obviously the % of times they strike out, and then tells us the opposite of the OBP and BB% of whether they have a bad approach at the plate or if they can't make consistent contact with the ball when they swing. On the pitchers side we first look at K/9 and K%, now these will tell us first what type of pitcher the 'subject' is because your typical 'ACE' level pitchers have K/9 ratios of about 9.0 or higher, the low end pitchers generally have 3.0-4.0 or sometimes lower than that so obviously the higher the strikeout % the more effective the pitcher is. Now this is not 100% true as there are also fly ball and ground ball pitchers so if a pitcher has a low K/9 and K% but you think their good look at their ERA and WHIP and if it's in the 3.00-4.00 and 1.00-1.50 marks then they are most likely are a contact pitcher, they will be talked about a little later too. Next up look at BB/9, BB% and K/BB, this will tell you how many batters the pitcher walks and overall is a good indicator of how much control a pitcher has over his pitches. The last of these averages in the HR/9 ratio, which gives us an idea of how susceptible the pitcher is to home runs, which may have to do with the park they are pitching in. After looking at these numbers you should have a better picture of how effective the hitter or pitcher is overall and usually these numbers tend to regress or increase to match or become close to the player's career average so you can tell whether they are expected to go up or down, but again consider the situation as you can't really make those assumptions about call ups or players who don't have a decent amount of experience in the majors, and thus a biased career average.
The Extra Shit:
Ok so the next set of stats are those to better look at a hitters power, speed and a pitchers performance, taking out defence and home runs, thats right we're going to ISO (isolated power) SPD (speed), FIP and xFIP. Now ISO is similar but slightly more accurate that SLG in terms of determining a players raw power at the plate and well thats because it uses SLG in it's calculation (SLG-AVG) so again treat this just like the other averages, expect it to turn to the players career average. Next up is SPD, pretty much the only indication of a players speed on the base path, now there are different versions of this stat as some websites or evaluators take different things into account when calculating it hence why there aren't really any other base stealing oriented stats available out there, but again treat it like other averages. Then we have FIP and xFIP, these 2 stats are nearly the same as both indicate where the pitcher's ERA should be if you took team defence out of the question, except xFIP removes home runs as well so if they are pitching in a homer prone park xFIP is the thing to look at. These stats generally are a better indicator of where the pitcher SHOULD be, so if the defence is in a slump expect the pitcher's ERA to improve over to his FIP or xFIP, however remember a shitty defence is still a shitty defence and thus if a pitcher say for the Astros has a FIP of 2.50 but an ERA of 4.30 it's not likely going to change as the Astros are just a bad and unexperienced team to begin with.
Types of Hits:
Ok so this area is important to both pitchers, so we're looking primarily at HR/FB and GB/FB for both hitters and pitchers. For hitters the HR/FB ratio is important a it indicates how many balls hit actually go out of the ball park, and just like everything sometimes it can seem a bit lopsided so expect it to move toward the career average, but also recognize when they have an excessively high ratio that is likely not sustainable, like if they have the same HR/FB ratio but have moved to a serious pitchers park. Now for pitchers it means something slightly different as this show how effective a pitcher is at getting fly balls because contact pitchers rely heavily on their ability to get fly balls that are easy for the outfielders to pick off, overall the same evaluation rules apply as to the HR/FB comparison of hitters. GB/FB ratio is in essence the same as the HR/FB for hitters but for pitchers it will show you what type of contact pitcher a player is and if it turns out they have a high GB/FB ratio, meaning their a ground ball pitcher, you should look at their LD% or line drive ratio to determine their overall effectiveness, as it is similar to the HR/FB ratio.
The All In One Stat:
Ok so there is ONE stat that is the mother of all stats as it was put together to take everything into account and that stat is WAR or Wins Above Replacement, basically the people who put this together basically said that this stat indicates how many games a team will win by having this player on their team instead of a player of average ability in all categories. In addition to standard WAR there are more specific break downs in oWAR (offensive WAR), dWAR (defensive WAR), etc. These act the same but are more accurate for the side they are looking at and overall WAR can be looked at similarly to the averages we went over previously.
All in all once you've looked at all of these stats your probably wondering,'What the hell do I do with these numbers?'. Well from here you need to think about what things can or have effected the numbers as compared to previous years or career averages and whether said change is legitimate or likely to change back to normal. Some situations would be reduced SPD/SB in a player that just got back from a hamstring injury, in that case of course those stats will be hampered but gradually they will come back to the norm but one shouldn't expect it to completely right itself considering the time lost and the fact that they WILL have a period of lacklustre performance in that category. So just remember when your going over all of this stuff be thorough because the more information you have on a player the more likely your predictions are to being correct.
-Eric
Monday, August 5, 2013
Bird Watch: The First Half Of The Cardinals Season (Hitting)
Alrighty, so heres that last of the half way evals of the three teams, so let's get into it.
Yadier Molina: One of the start players for the Cardinals who happens to be having another fantastic year offensively and in my personal opinion is likely in line for potentially winning the NL MVP. Theres not much to indicate that Molina is going to have some sort of down turn in skill in the second half this is because, despite his numbers being slightly better than his career averages they are strikingly similar to the stats he managed to post last year meaning it is more likely that he's started to get to the prime of his career rather than what he's done being anything like a fluke. In addition to his standard stats his batting average, OBP and OPS in different situations is fairly even so his approach at the plate and overall discipline when at bat so we don't have to worry about him striking out an excessive amount or pitchers putting him in bad batting situations either. Now if anything his skill set is likely to increase a bit from here until the end of the season, this is because again if you believe that this seasons production is real, which I do, then you have to compare his numbers with those of last years and he is currently a couple steps below last years production in terms of SLG/Isolated Power and BB % so expect an increase in home runs/extra base hits and walks from Molina in the second half of the season.
Matt Carpenter: Ah Matt Carpenter, another of the seemingly endless supply of surprise rookies that the Cardinals have in their minor league system. Now Carpenter did play ALMOST a full season last year (about 2/3 when all is said and done) but he managed to hit for AVG (.294) and some power driving in 6 home runs and a fair amount of extra base hits, which of course is great production from any rookie player who is just getting in their first long stretch in the majors. Now the thing that was again, typical of rookies, but not great on the stat line was that he was striking out a fair amount above the average for MLB players and his defence was a bit wobbly, though despite these short comings he still had an above 0 WAR meaning that he did positively contribute to the team. Now on the other hand this year he has managed to reduce his strike out rate by about 4% impressively, while still holding onto the walks he had last year, while also greatly improving his fielding and getting a slight boost in power, which has helping the Cardinals stay at the top of the MLB for an extended period of time. Now don't misconstrue what I'm saying with the rookie hype that came last year with Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, he's not playing to that level (and personally those two are the anomaly as most rookies won't play to that level until late in their career if at all) and as such he's not doing anything that can be considered outside of his talent. What this means of course is just at a glance there isn't much reason to expect a regression as he's just built up on last years performance, which any player would typically do in the first few years of their major league career. Just like Molina, Carpenter has no issues present in his split stats again as they remain pretty even within a decent area of deviation and don't sink below .250. Now he could improve in his strike out rate and thats because, despite lowering it from last year 10% is still not a desirable strike out rate, overall though expect more of the same and a bright future for this rising star.
Allen Craig: Another fairly new player to the Cardinals regular players, it's kind of surprising how many of these guys have only started in the last couple years and just like the others he has been a good producer for the teams offence. Now I'm just going to get it out of the way, Craig is literally the ultimate clutch hitter as he's been hitting .476 with runners in scoring position, which has been made up for a lot of the large scoring games the Cardinals have been involved in. Now just like Carpenter since he is a relatively new player to the Cardinals so we can only really compare last year to this year as his averages are biased as it has incorporated his minor league numbers as well. Ok so as far as what he's done right, he's had good splits across the board, hence his ability to hit in the most needed situations. Now when we look at last year in comparison to this year his numbers have improved slightly however his power has been reduced than what it was like last year so it is expected that that his number of home runs and extra base hits will increase form here on out and like Carpenter he has room to better himself in terms of his strike out rate, which is currently at 17% and his walk rate, which is fairly low (6.1%) so there is plenty of room for Craig to get better. The other thing we can look at is his defence and base running ability, which is oddly reversed from last year as compared to this year, low fielding last year but much higher this year, low base running this year but fairly higher last year so it's a bit hard to tell, which is the REAL Allen Craig. Overall it's likely that we will need another year or two before analysts can come to an accurate conclusion of Craig's numbers but all in all we can expect him to continue to grow and improve as a player but don't expect any large increase or decrease in his production for the remainder of the year.
Carlos Beltran: Now heres the other end of the players for the Cardinals, an aging player who has been injured fairly often on the other hand though just like everyone else he's been producing well for what kind of a player he is. Beltran has been on the right side in terms of his average stats for nearly everything comparatively to the last few years, however his fielding has decreased over the years, which is likely due to his injury history and inability to cover the same amount of ground in the outfield. In addition Beltran has a fairly poor approach at the plate in 2 strike situations as his batting AVG drops from .176 - .239 in 2 strike counts and the rest of the count situations are much further above the .250 line in his AVG. With the exception of those situations just described all of the rest of this situational stats are fairly level with what we've come to expect from players like Beltran. Though there is some room for improvement that we expect to see with Beltran's production, the first being a rise in his walk rate as it's currently at an abysmal 5% and his standard BB % is actually about double his current rate. In addition to this there is a correction to his power numbers that is likely to come up as his SLG, OPS and Isolated Power are about .05 - 0.8 points lower than his career numbers of even the numbers in the last 3 or so years so there should be a slight increase in his power numbers, home runs an extra base hits. Now while there are all of these potential positives for the future of this season for Beltran, his HR/FB ratio is inflated well above the major league norm and considering that a little over 40% of his hits are fly balls once less of those balls are flying out of the stadium there will be a regression in power numbers and batting AVG/OBP/OPS. So overall I imagine that the downside would likely outweigh the potential upturn of production so expect a decrease in Beltran's power production and slightly in AVG/OBP and OPS.
Matt Holliday: Another of the Cardinals aging stars, now Holliday is another big power producer for the Cardinals lineup, he's a consistent 20 home run hitter, drives in plenty of runs has the ability to steal some bases throughout the season. Now what we've seen from Holliday so far is pretty much what he did last year with 2 exceptions and that is his strikeout % and his isolated power. What we see here as compared to previous years and his career numbers is a decrease of about 3-4% in his strikeout rate, which is fantastic for any batter, however he has also seen a fair drop in his ability to power the ball that can be seen in his SLG being .04 points below from last year, nearly .1 lower from 2011 and a drop of 50 points in isolated power. Now the next question, is this real? Well in a way yes, thats because like some of the other players I've analyzed they showed a steady decline or incline of a certain skill over time and with Holliday we've seen a slight reduction in his power over the last 3 years. On the other hand this random dip in his strikeout percentage is against any sort of trend that you can see so I don't believe that to be a true representation of where he'll be at the end of the season. Another slightly strange thing is the number of bases he's stolen because he has 5 so far on the year but last year he only snagged 4 bags total, now it's not completely insane but it's definitely out of the norm for him and again theres no statistical trend to indicate that this is for real. Overall Holliday should continue at the rate his power is moving but his strikeout rate will likely climb up a bit as pitchers adjust to him or he changes his swing.
David Freese: A pretty average maybe slightly above average third baseman, honestly his ability is a bit overblown and thats because he had a good year in 2012 but his stats this year have been more driven toward his previous stats outside of 2012. Now comparing his career averages to this year to date we can see a few areas that are lower or higher, his base running and walk rate are both above his career averages, but then every other stat of his is below his career averages. Now if we look past the last year when he hit 20 home runs his isolated power, walk rate and OBP are similar so thats more or less what to expect in terms of those stats in the future of this season. On the other hand his strikeout rate is currently 2-3% higher than his previous seasons and Freese is known as a bit of a free swinger so expect an increase in his strikeout totals in the future. As such with an increase in strikeouts there will likely be a decline in batting average, but there is some indication that there will be a slight increase in power as his SLG and isolated power is lower in this years values to where they were in 2011/2010 and his career averages. So expect something similar from Freese as with Holliday, an increase in strikeouts and a slight increase in overall power, so more extra base hits and home runs.
Jon Jay: Going to be a bit quick about these last two players because they are what they are and it's doubtful we'll see any sort of change in anyway. Jon Jay first of all is someone who hits for average with next to no power at all and with pretty average speed. This year his strikeout rate and walk rate is higher than usual so it's likely that this will correct itself but because both of them are about equal in terms of above the average or last years stats so there isn't likely to be a change in any of his other stats (OBP, AVG, SLG, etc). So again expect to see him walk less and strikeout less but again overall should make a difference in any other stat.
Pete Kozma: The replacement for Rafael Furcal and yet another Rookie on the Cardinals starting line up. Now since this is really his first 'full' season we can't really make any sort of estimate as to where we expect him to end up but we can see in his stats that he has a trend of hitting below average and walking at a fairly low rate with a big lack of power and speed. So his current production should be what carries into the rest of this year as he hasn't shown any sort of flash of brilliance to indicate otherwise.
Tomorrow I will post the previously mentioned 'How To Evaluate A Player' post.
-Eric
Yadier Molina: One of the start players for the Cardinals who happens to be having another fantastic year offensively and in my personal opinion is likely in line for potentially winning the NL MVP. Theres not much to indicate that Molina is going to have some sort of down turn in skill in the second half this is because, despite his numbers being slightly better than his career averages they are strikingly similar to the stats he managed to post last year meaning it is more likely that he's started to get to the prime of his career rather than what he's done being anything like a fluke. In addition to his standard stats his batting average, OBP and OPS in different situations is fairly even so his approach at the plate and overall discipline when at bat so we don't have to worry about him striking out an excessive amount or pitchers putting him in bad batting situations either. Now if anything his skill set is likely to increase a bit from here until the end of the season, this is because again if you believe that this seasons production is real, which I do, then you have to compare his numbers with those of last years and he is currently a couple steps below last years production in terms of SLG/Isolated Power and BB % so expect an increase in home runs/extra base hits and walks from Molina in the second half of the season.
Matt Carpenter: Ah Matt Carpenter, another of the seemingly endless supply of surprise rookies that the Cardinals have in their minor league system. Now Carpenter did play ALMOST a full season last year (about 2/3 when all is said and done) but he managed to hit for AVG (.294) and some power driving in 6 home runs and a fair amount of extra base hits, which of course is great production from any rookie player who is just getting in their first long stretch in the majors. Now the thing that was again, typical of rookies, but not great on the stat line was that he was striking out a fair amount above the average for MLB players and his defence was a bit wobbly, though despite these short comings he still had an above 0 WAR meaning that he did positively contribute to the team. Now on the other hand this year he has managed to reduce his strike out rate by about 4% impressively, while still holding onto the walks he had last year, while also greatly improving his fielding and getting a slight boost in power, which has helping the Cardinals stay at the top of the MLB for an extended period of time. Now don't misconstrue what I'm saying with the rookie hype that came last year with Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, he's not playing to that level (and personally those two are the anomaly as most rookies won't play to that level until late in their career if at all) and as such he's not doing anything that can be considered outside of his talent. What this means of course is just at a glance there isn't much reason to expect a regression as he's just built up on last years performance, which any player would typically do in the first few years of their major league career. Just like Molina, Carpenter has no issues present in his split stats again as they remain pretty even within a decent area of deviation and don't sink below .250. Now he could improve in his strike out rate and thats because, despite lowering it from last year 10% is still not a desirable strike out rate, overall though expect more of the same and a bright future for this rising star.
Allen Craig: Another fairly new player to the Cardinals regular players, it's kind of surprising how many of these guys have only started in the last couple years and just like the others he has been a good producer for the teams offence. Now I'm just going to get it out of the way, Craig is literally the ultimate clutch hitter as he's been hitting .476 with runners in scoring position, which has been made up for a lot of the large scoring games the Cardinals have been involved in. Now just like Carpenter since he is a relatively new player to the Cardinals so we can only really compare last year to this year as his averages are biased as it has incorporated his minor league numbers as well. Ok so as far as what he's done right, he's had good splits across the board, hence his ability to hit in the most needed situations. Now when we look at last year in comparison to this year his numbers have improved slightly however his power has been reduced than what it was like last year so it is expected that that his number of home runs and extra base hits will increase form here on out and like Carpenter he has room to better himself in terms of his strike out rate, which is currently at 17% and his walk rate, which is fairly low (6.1%) so there is plenty of room for Craig to get better. The other thing we can look at is his defence and base running ability, which is oddly reversed from last year as compared to this year, low fielding last year but much higher this year, low base running this year but fairly higher last year so it's a bit hard to tell, which is the REAL Allen Craig. Overall it's likely that we will need another year or two before analysts can come to an accurate conclusion of Craig's numbers but all in all we can expect him to continue to grow and improve as a player but don't expect any large increase or decrease in his production for the remainder of the year.
Carlos Beltran: Now heres the other end of the players for the Cardinals, an aging player who has been injured fairly often on the other hand though just like everyone else he's been producing well for what kind of a player he is. Beltran has been on the right side in terms of his average stats for nearly everything comparatively to the last few years, however his fielding has decreased over the years, which is likely due to his injury history and inability to cover the same amount of ground in the outfield. In addition Beltran has a fairly poor approach at the plate in 2 strike situations as his batting AVG drops from .176 - .239 in 2 strike counts and the rest of the count situations are much further above the .250 line in his AVG. With the exception of those situations just described all of the rest of this situational stats are fairly level with what we've come to expect from players like Beltran. Though there is some room for improvement that we expect to see with Beltran's production, the first being a rise in his walk rate as it's currently at an abysmal 5% and his standard BB % is actually about double his current rate. In addition to this there is a correction to his power numbers that is likely to come up as his SLG, OPS and Isolated Power are about .05 - 0.8 points lower than his career numbers of even the numbers in the last 3 or so years so there should be a slight increase in his power numbers, home runs an extra base hits. Now while there are all of these potential positives for the future of this season for Beltran, his HR/FB ratio is inflated well above the major league norm and considering that a little over 40% of his hits are fly balls once less of those balls are flying out of the stadium there will be a regression in power numbers and batting AVG/OBP/OPS. So overall I imagine that the downside would likely outweigh the potential upturn of production so expect a decrease in Beltran's power production and slightly in AVG/OBP and OPS.
Matt Holliday: Another of the Cardinals aging stars, now Holliday is another big power producer for the Cardinals lineup, he's a consistent 20 home run hitter, drives in plenty of runs has the ability to steal some bases throughout the season. Now what we've seen from Holliday so far is pretty much what he did last year with 2 exceptions and that is his strikeout % and his isolated power. What we see here as compared to previous years and his career numbers is a decrease of about 3-4% in his strikeout rate, which is fantastic for any batter, however he has also seen a fair drop in his ability to power the ball that can be seen in his SLG being .04 points below from last year, nearly .1 lower from 2011 and a drop of 50 points in isolated power. Now the next question, is this real? Well in a way yes, thats because like some of the other players I've analyzed they showed a steady decline or incline of a certain skill over time and with Holliday we've seen a slight reduction in his power over the last 3 years. On the other hand this random dip in his strikeout percentage is against any sort of trend that you can see so I don't believe that to be a true representation of where he'll be at the end of the season. Another slightly strange thing is the number of bases he's stolen because he has 5 so far on the year but last year he only snagged 4 bags total, now it's not completely insane but it's definitely out of the norm for him and again theres no statistical trend to indicate that this is for real. Overall Holliday should continue at the rate his power is moving but his strikeout rate will likely climb up a bit as pitchers adjust to him or he changes his swing.
David Freese: A pretty average maybe slightly above average third baseman, honestly his ability is a bit overblown and thats because he had a good year in 2012 but his stats this year have been more driven toward his previous stats outside of 2012. Now comparing his career averages to this year to date we can see a few areas that are lower or higher, his base running and walk rate are both above his career averages, but then every other stat of his is below his career averages. Now if we look past the last year when he hit 20 home runs his isolated power, walk rate and OBP are similar so thats more or less what to expect in terms of those stats in the future of this season. On the other hand his strikeout rate is currently 2-3% higher than his previous seasons and Freese is known as a bit of a free swinger so expect an increase in his strikeout totals in the future. As such with an increase in strikeouts there will likely be a decline in batting average, but there is some indication that there will be a slight increase in power as his SLG and isolated power is lower in this years values to where they were in 2011/2010 and his career averages. So expect something similar from Freese as with Holliday, an increase in strikeouts and a slight increase in overall power, so more extra base hits and home runs.
Jon Jay: Going to be a bit quick about these last two players because they are what they are and it's doubtful we'll see any sort of change in anyway. Jon Jay first of all is someone who hits for average with next to no power at all and with pretty average speed. This year his strikeout rate and walk rate is higher than usual so it's likely that this will correct itself but because both of them are about equal in terms of above the average or last years stats so there isn't likely to be a change in any of his other stats (OBP, AVG, SLG, etc). So again expect to see him walk less and strikeout less but again overall should make a difference in any other stat.
Pete Kozma: The replacement for Rafael Furcal and yet another Rookie on the Cardinals starting line up. Now since this is really his first 'full' season we can't really make any sort of estimate as to where we expect him to end up but we can see in his stats that he has a trend of hitting below average and walking at a fairly low rate with a big lack of power and speed. So his current production should be what carries into the rest of this year as he hasn't shown any sort of flash of brilliance to indicate otherwise.
Tomorrow I will post the previously mentioned 'How To Evaluate A Player' post.
-Eric
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