Wednesday, August 28, 2013

End Of Year Award Predictions

Ok so one of the major things people should be thinking about as the final month of the baseball season winds down is who, of the greatest players this year deserve the various end of year awards. Those are the AL MVP, Cy Young and Rookie Of The Year in addition to the NL MVP, Cy Young and Rookie Of The Year, so I'll be going over who I think should win those awards and why. We'll start off with the AL.

AL:

MVP: Well this seems like this one is pretty much a no brainer, so my thoughts have this one going to Miguel Cabrera again. Now this would be a bit of a different story if Chris Davis was keeping up the pace he was setting himself up for during the first few months of the season but Cabrera has been holding top spot in nearly all batting categories except HR including some of the additional stats (OBP, OPS and SLG). And it's not just that he's leading those categories it's that he's destroying them, as in nearly all categories only the 2nd place guy is anywhere near him. For example in HR Chris Davis currently leads with 46, with Miggy just behind at 43 and the next best is Edwin Encarnacion at 33, a full 10 home runs below Cabrera. If that doesn't scream MVP I don't know what does.

Cy Young: Now this one gets a bit foggy as there are 2-3 pitchers that could take this for varying reasons. Now, my opinion is probably not going fall in line with the popular belief but I think that the award should go to Yu Darvish. Now plenty of people are going to be up in arms about me not giving it to Scherzer, now I do respect what Max is doing this season I don't pretend to forget that darvish has been the lead in strikeouts by nearly 30, Darvish is 3rd in ERA and is only off the first place pitcher (Anibal Sanchez) by 0.07 (better than Scherzer), is only slightly below Scherzer in WHIP and right behind Scherzer in all other categories. Then of course let's not forget that if you watch him pitch you'll notice not only is his power still the same as it was last year but he's picked up the control as well and as a result is kicking ass even more than the previous season.

Rookie Of The Year: Another slightly difficult decision to make on this one, mainly because there aren't any real big stand outs like that last year, but I suppose the closest to the right pick for this would be Tampa Bay outfielder Wil Myers. Now Myers hasn't been perfect or anything to that extent but to be honest he's the best of a fairly thin selection this year so there isn't really another quality rookie to pick in that case.

NL:

MVP: Ok so heres another one that didn't necessarily have a no questions asked winner, though again I expect people may not agree with the prediction I'm making for this one but my winner of the MVP is Clayton Kershaw. Now yea I realize pitchers don't usually win this thing unless under extreme circumstances and to be honest everything about Kershaw's stat line is ridiculous with exception to his Win-Loss record, which is near meaningless to begin with. The fact that there is only 1 month of baseball left and he's posting the lowest ERA and WHIP since 1968 should tell you all you need to know, not only that but he's also just barely behind Matt Harvey in strikeouts in the NL and he's aiming for a career high innings pitched and that's not including innings he'll likely pick up during the playoffs. Now if that doesn't convince you take a look at this stat line: 2.40 ERA, 24-5 W-L, 251.0 IP, 53 BB, 250 Ks, 0.92 WHIP, those stats belong to the 2011 MVP, Justin Verlander. Now what you should know is that Kershaw is shattering Verlander's MVP ERA and WHIP (1.72 and 0.85), he's on his way to about 235-240 strikeouts, nearly in line with Verlander's MVP season and he's poised to walk about the same amount as well. All in all this pretty much slots Kershaw in for winner of the MVP in my mind, though the common argument against it is that his W-L record isn't nearly that of Verlander's and while that may be true the Dodgers have had serious injuries to their star players and as a result he hasn't gotten the run support necessary to get those precious wins, hence why his win total is only at 13 despite having pitched twice that many games and if you need any more proof of that notice that his FIP is actually 1.44, a bit lower than his current ERA and his xFIP is still under 2.00 as well. So if you don't think Kershaw deserves this take a good hard look at the stats then come back.

Cy Young: Ok so after what I just said about Kershaw in the MVP paragraph I'm sure you can guess I'm giving him unanimous for the Cy Young, no conversation required.

Rookie Of The Year: Now this one again is a hard one as there are many front runners, be it Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez or Yasiel Puig. Now if you just look at what all three of these players have done this year it's hard to pick one over the other because they've all been amazing however I have to narrow down to one person and that player is Yasiel Puig. The reason I chose Puig over the other two is because not only did he put up amazing stats for the first month of his career but even when it looked like he was going to hit a prolonged slump he figured it out and jumped back into it, hell he's still hitting in the .350's, tut thats not the main reason why I chose him. The reason I chose him is because he got the call up when the Dodgers were without Kemp, Ethier and overall a consistent offensive performance but Puig not only brought that offensive presence but he also kick started the Dodgers as a team back into action, which can be seen in the pick up of the Dodger's games won and run differential increase from the time Puig joined the game. In addition to this we have seen that Puig is very much the definition of a five tool player, he has an amazing glove, can easily hit for power and average, he's got speed on the base paths sure enough to steal bases and he has a cannon for an arm that has allowed him to make some ridiculous throw outs. This is really what sets him apart from the others because he not only delivers on the offensive side but in all aspects f the game he can help in and was responsible for getting the Dodgers back on track towards a playoff push.

-Eric

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