Alrighty, so heres that last of the half way evals of the three teams, so let's get into it.
Yadier Molina: One of the start players for the Cardinals who happens to be having another fantastic year offensively and in my personal opinion is likely in line for potentially winning the NL MVP. Theres not much to indicate that Molina is going to have some sort of down turn in skill in the second half this is because, despite his numbers being slightly better than his career averages they are strikingly similar to the stats he managed to post last year meaning it is more likely that he's started to get to the prime of his career rather than what he's done being anything like a fluke. In addition to his standard stats his batting average, OBP and OPS in different situations is fairly even so his approach at the plate and overall discipline when at bat so we don't have to worry about him striking out an excessive amount or pitchers putting him in bad batting situations either. Now if anything his skill set is likely to increase a bit from here until the end of the season, this is because again if you believe that this seasons production is real, which I do, then you have to compare his numbers with those of last years and he is currently a couple steps below last years production in terms of SLG/Isolated Power and BB % so expect an increase in home runs/extra base hits and walks from Molina in the second half of the season.
Matt Carpenter: Ah Matt Carpenter, another of the seemingly endless supply of surprise rookies that the Cardinals have in their minor league system. Now Carpenter did play ALMOST a full season last year (about 2/3 when all is said and done) but he managed to hit for AVG (.294) and some power driving in 6 home runs and a fair amount of extra base hits, which of course is great production from any rookie player who is just getting in their first long stretch in the majors. Now the thing that was again, typical of rookies, but not great on the stat line was that he was striking out a fair amount above the average for MLB players and his defence was a bit wobbly, though despite these short comings he still had an above 0 WAR meaning that he did positively contribute to the team. Now on the other hand this year he has managed to reduce his strike out rate by about 4% impressively, while still holding onto the walks he had last year, while also greatly improving his fielding and getting a slight boost in power, which has helping the Cardinals stay at the top of the MLB for an extended period of time. Now don't misconstrue what I'm saying with the rookie hype that came last year with Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, he's not playing to that level (and personally those two are the anomaly as most rookies won't play to that level until late in their career if at all) and as such he's not doing anything that can be considered outside of his talent. What this means of course is just at a glance there isn't much reason to expect a regression as he's just built up on last years performance, which any player would typically do in the first few years of their major league career. Just like Molina, Carpenter has no issues present in his split stats again as they remain pretty even within a decent area of deviation and don't sink below .250. Now he could improve in his strike out rate and thats because, despite lowering it from last year 10% is still not a desirable strike out rate, overall though expect more of the same and a bright future for this rising star.
Allen Craig: Another fairly new player to the Cardinals regular players, it's kind of surprising how many of these guys have only started in the last couple years and just like the others he has been a good producer for the teams offence. Now I'm just going to get it out of the way, Craig is literally the ultimate clutch hitter as he's been hitting .476 with runners in scoring position, which has been made up for a lot of the large scoring games the Cardinals have been involved in. Now just like Carpenter since he is a relatively new player to the Cardinals so we can only really compare last year to this year as his averages are biased as it has incorporated his minor league numbers as well. Ok so as far as what he's done right, he's had good splits across the board, hence his ability to hit in the most needed situations. Now when we look at last year in comparison to this year his numbers have improved slightly however his power has been reduced than what it was like last year so it is expected that that his number of home runs and extra base hits will increase form here on out and like Carpenter he has room to better himself in terms of his strike out rate, which is currently at 17% and his walk rate, which is fairly low (6.1%) so there is plenty of room for Craig to get better. The other thing we can look at is his defence and base running ability, which is oddly reversed from last year as compared to this year, low fielding last year but much higher this year, low base running this year but fairly higher last year so it's a bit hard to tell, which is the REAL Allen Craig. Overall it's likely that we will need another year or two before analysts can come to an accurate conclusion of Craig's numbers but all in all we can expect him to continue to grow and improve as a player but don't expect any large increase or decrease in his production for the remainder of the year.
Carlos Beltran: Now heres the other end of the players for the Cardinals, an aging player who has been injured fairly often on the other hand though just like everyone else he's been producing well for what kind of a player he is. Beltran has been on the right side in terms of his average stats for nearly everything comparatively to the last few years, however his fielding has decreased over the years, which is likely due to his injury history and inability to cover the same amount of ground in the outfield. In addition Beltran has a fairly poor approach at the plate in 2 strike situations as his batting AVG drops from .176 - .239 in 2 strike counts and the rest of the count situations are much further above the .250 line in his AVG. With the exception of those situations just described all of the rest of this situational stats are fairly level with what we've come to expect from players like Beltran. Though there is some room for improvement that we expect to see with Beltran's production, the first being a rise in his walk rate as it's currently at an abysmal 5% and his standard BB % is actually about double his current rate. In addition to this there is a correction to his power numbers that is likely to come up as his SLG, OPS and Isolated Power are about .05 - 0.8 points lower than his career numbers of even the numbers in the last 3 or so years so there should be a slight increase in his power numbers, home runs an extra base hits. Now while there are all of these potential positives for the future of this season for Beltran, his HR/FB ratio is inflated well above the major league norm and considering that a little over 40% of his hits are fly balls once less of those balls are flying out of the stadium there will be a regression in power numbers and batting AVG/OBP/OPS. So overall I imagine that the downside would likely outweigh the potential upturn of production so expect a decrease in Beltran's power production and slightly in AVG/OBP and OPS.
Matt Holliday: Another of the Cardinals aging stars, now Holliday is another big power producer for the Cardinals lineup, he's a consistent 20 home run hitter, drives in plenty of runs has the ability to steal some bases throughout the season. Now what we've seen from Holliday so far is pretty much what he did last year with 2 exceptions and that is his strikeout % and his isolated power. What we see here as compared to previous years and his career numbers is a decrease of about 3-4% in his strikeout rate, which is fantastic for any batter, however he has also seen a fair drop in his ability to power the ball that can be seen in his SLG being .04 points below from last year, nearly .1 lower from 2011 and a drop of 50 points in isolated power. Now the next question, is this real? Well in a way yes, thats because like some of the other players I've analyzed they showed a steady decline or incline of a certain skill over time and with Holliday we've seen a slight reduction in his power over the last 3 years. On the other hand this random dip in his strikeout percentage is against any sort of trend that you can see so I don't believe that to be a true representation of where he'll be at the end of the season. Another slightly strange thing is the number of bases he's stolen because he has 5 so far on the year but last year he only snagged 4 bags total, now it's not completely insane but it's definitely out of the norm for him and again theres no statistical trend to indicate that this is for real. Overall Holliday should continue at the rate his power is moving but his strikeout rate will likely climb up a bit as pitchers adjust to him or he changes his swing.
David Freese: A pretty average maybe slightly above average third baseman, honestly his ability is a bit overblown and thats because he had a good year in 2012 but his stats this year have been more driven toward his previous stats outside of 2012. Now comparing his career averages to this year to date we can see a few areas that are lower or higher, his base running and walk rate are both above his career averages, but then every other stat of his is below his career averages. Now if we look past the last year when he hit 20 home runs his isolated power, walk rate and OBP are similar so thats more or less what to expect in terms of those stats in the future of this season. On the other hand his strikeout rate is currently 2-3% higher than his previous seasons and Freese is known as a bit of a free swinger so expect an increase in his strikeout totals in the future. As such with an increase in strikeouts there will likely be a decline in batting average, but there is some indication that there will be a slight increase in power as his SLG and isolated power is lower in this years values to where they were in 2011/2010 and his career averages. So expect something similar from Freese as with Holliday, an increase in strikeouts and a slight increase in overall power, so more extra base hits and home runs.
Jon Jay: Going to be a bit quick about these last two players because they are what they are and it's doubtful we'll see any sort of change in anyway. Jon Jay first of all is someone who hits for average with next to no power at all and with pretty average speed. This year his strikeout rate and walk rate is higher than usual so it's likely that this will correct itself but because both of them are about equal in terms of above the average or last years stats so there isn't likely to be a change in any of his other stats (OBP, AVG, SLG, etc). So again expect to see him walk less and strikeout less but again overall should make a difference in any other stat.
Pete Kozma: The replacement for Rafael Furcal and yet another Rookie on the Cardinals starting line up. Now since this is really his first 'full' season we can't really make any sort of estimate as to where we expect him to end up but we can see in his stats that he has a trend of hitting below average and walking at a fairly low rate with a big lack of power and speed. So his current production should be what carries into the rest of this year as he hasn't shown any sort of flash of brilliance to indicate otherwise.
Tomorrow I will post the previously mentioned 'How To Evaluate A Player' post.
-Eric
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