Ok so unlike the Blue Jays, the Orioles have actually been doing pretty well for themselves a couple of issues coming up here and there, those being having several close 1-2 run games, meaning the offence in those games didn't provide the starter with enough run support, and the mid section of the bullpen, just before the set up and closer get involved. So let's take a look at the Orioles pitching for the first half of the season:
Chris Tillman: Tillman has been a very welcome surprise for the Orioles this season a he seems to be finally coming into his own on the mound. Now I say this despite a good performance last year because he did not play for the full year and ended with a record of 9-3 whereas he currently is at 12-3 right now, so with a much better winning percentage. Ok so as of now there honestly isn't much to say about Tillman, he only has a few stats that aren't really in line with his career averages or slightly higher/lower with the exception of his home runs per 9 innings and his home run/fly ball ratio. Now his HR/9 ratio is 1.58, whereas his career average is at 1.44 so he has the potential to allow less home runs during his starts in the second half. Then to further prove that we can look at his HR/FB ratio this year, which is 15.6%, and his career is 12.4% showing that he has been getting a bit unlucky with the long ball and suggests like the HR/9 stat that he is likely to give up less home runs in the second half. Now I suppose the only other area I can look at for holes or hope in Tillman's stats is in his FIP and xFIP, which sits at 4.87 and 4.17 respectively, now his ERA sits at 3.84 so his field independent pitching ratios suggest that the team's defence has been helping keep the ball from becoming base hits so while there may be a decrease in his number of home runs in the second half the numbers also suggest that he's been getting off lucky and his ERA and WHIP is set to increase a bit. Now some may wonder what of FIP or xFIP should I focus on when looking at players? Well the answer to that is based on what you want to focus on as xFIP is the same as FIP but it doesn't incorporate home runs so in the case of Tillman, since we expect his home run rate to change, and that it wasn't very high to begin with, we should be looking at his xFIP. Overall Tillman should enjoy some more success in the rotation though don't be surprised if his ERA and WHIP inflate a little, the only final thing to consider is that this will be his first full season so he could run into some issues down the stretch since he hasn't pitched over 90 innings at the major league level.
Jason Hammel: Now I loved Jason Hammel last year, he just came out of no where and acted as the team's unofficial ace and he helped a couple of my fantasy teams to a swift victory. However he is taking in the ass this year as he has had a pretty severe regression in nearly all stats, his K/9 has dropped from 8.62 to 6.27 so he's not striking out as many people as before, which could be either a lack of command or just that his pitches aren't fooling hitters anymore. As well as this his HR/9 has increased from 0.69 to 1.45 so it's more than doubled so his talent for suppressing the long ball has vanished, his ground ball percentage has gone down from 53.2% to 40.9% so he's not hitting the bottom of the strike zone as much to cause ground balls, his HR/FB ratio has also gone up from 9.7% to 13.5% so this would suggest the balls that he's not getting ground balls are more than likely getting located in the centre/middle of the strike zone and pummelled out of the field. Now on the other hand Hammel does have some indication that he has been getting a bit unlucky as his 5.80 ERA is fairly higher than his 5.00 FIP and 4.57 xFIP again suggesting he's in for a slight turn around and his career stats as compared to the previously mentioned ones are somewhat lower, which would generally indicate he is going to trend upwards. NOW this isn't entirely true and that is because he has 4 full seasons in the majors, excluding this year, and 3 of those 4 years were with Colorado in the NL West where the hitters are much weaker than in the AL East so it's hard to draw those conclusions with only 1 full season in the AL East. So basically I would expect the his ERA and WHIP will get a bit better though his other stats are up in the air as you can't really make a safe assumption since the majority of his career stats are from a MUCH weaker hitting division.
Miguel Gonzalez: Now heres another young pitcher who is doing a good job for Baltimore and holding the team in the game on a regular basis as he is just in his second full season in the big leagues. Now like with Jason Hammel, because of this lack of major league experience these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt as there isn't really enough major league stats that you can appropriately draw a conclusion. Now to be honest Gonzalez's stats are pretty much in line with what you'd expect from a solid #3 or #4 pitcher in your starting rotation and his stats generally show that there isn't much change to be expected, his ratios (HR/FB, K/9, BB/9. GB%, HR/9, etc.) are all at or just slightly above/below the career average and what he managed to post the year prior so I expect he continues to do what he's doing. Now there is one thing to note and that is similarly to Chris Tillman, because he has a lack of major league experience he has only pitched 105 innings most in his time in the majors and only 130 innings as his most in a season with the Red Sox AA affiliate so he could see some regression as the large number of innings start to wear on his pitching arm, especially with the Orioles looking like they will be playoff bound. So all in all nothing to worry about, Gonzalez should keep doing what he's doing but keep in mind he may show a bit of wear and tear later as the final month closes in.
Wei Yin Chen: Boy do the Orioles have A LOT of young pitchers in the rotation and all guys who are managing to perform well and keep the team in the race for the AL East title and the playoffs in general. Now in terms of Chen in the games he pitched post and pre injury, which has kept him out of the line up for an extended period of time he has had some increase in one stat but a decrease in another. Now the first to see is that his K/9 has decreased from 7.19 in 2012 to 4.90 this year, which is a bit worrying at first glance since strikeouts are a big part of a starters repertoire, though he has seen a decrease in his HR/FB ratio as well from 1.35 in 2012 to 0.66 this year so even though he's lost strikeouts he's still able to keep the ball out of the stands. Now the final interesting bit about Chen's stat line is that his ERA has taken a nose dive, which is a good thing, from 4.02 in 2012 to 2.78 this year, which suggests that he's been incredibly effective with keeping the ball within an area that the fielders can throw them out when he doesn't get those strikeouts. Now like I've talked about you also have to still take note of his FIP and xFIP, which are each 1.00 point above the prior so despite all of these spectacular numbers the Orioles defence is saving him to some extent though like Gonzalez, there is nothing to suggest that his ability will decrease in the mean time and last year he pitched 192 innings so he is more than capable of pushing his innings high.
Kevin Gausman: Good ol' doughnut boy himself. Now if you don't know what I'm talking about I made a post on Gausman when he was first called up and reason being because he feasts on powdered doughnuts in between innings, definitely another funny habit some players have. Now with Gausman there isn't much to talk about and thats because the numbers he's shown in terms of ratios match up with his minor league numbers except K/9, which was expected going from AAA hitters to major league hitters. Though the downside is that because of his inexperience against major leaguers he's been beat up quite a bit, sporting an ERA of 6.21, though his FIP and xFIP (5.03, 3.76) suggest that if he gets the ball to start again this year some improvement will likely be seen in how many runs get out during the game. So don't go crazy for Gausman just yet, yes he is one of the Orioles biggest pitching prospects along with Dylan Bundy but give him a year or two and I'm sure he'll be pitching like all of the other young studs in the Orioles rotation
The Rest: Now since the Orioles have had a bit of issue with their starters getting injured this year there have been a surge of pitchers who have gotten starts here and there, though they all fall under the same category, crappy pitchers. Nearly all of these starters ended up sporting a high ERA, sometimes with high strikeouts and low walks but still allowing a fair number of runs and overall not helping the rotation a great deal as most of them got sent down when they could be replaced. Now the final thing I can say about the evolution of the Orioles rotation this year is the addition of Scott Feldman, while I don't think theres enough data to draw any conclusions I do believe he could be a difference maker for Baltimore strictly because he played with Texas for a few years in one of the most hitter friendly parks and had decent success and while Camden Yards is a hitters park it's not nearly as bad as Rangers Ballpark so expect Feldman to be a good contributor to the Orioles lineup and maybe assist in the playoff push.
Ok so thats all for the Orioles starting pitching staff, expect a post on the Orioles hitters within the next couple days.
-Eric
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