Thursday, July 3, 2014

Half Way Playoff Projections

Well were at the halfway point of the seasons now and think its time to put out my guesses on who is going to make it to the postseason. Ok so we'll break it down into each division then the wild cards before going to the next league.

American League:
-East: in the east I have the Blue Jays winning the division. There are dozens of people that seem to have little faith that the Jays will continue to hold onto first in the division, however despite the Yankees and Orioles gaining some ground on them a week or so ago, they have been recently giving up the ground they previously gained. Now just a mini rant on the Yankees playoff potential. The reason I do not believe they will make the postseason is because they have a TERRIBLE rotation without Tanaka and aside from Sanchez they don't have much in the way of desirable prospects to make a trade for a quality starter by the deadline, and even if ey did I think they need 2 of them to make it. Additionally like I've told people before they Yankees made terrible signings this offseason because almost all of them are either injury risks (Beltran and Ellsbury) or have been on a downward trend with their skill set for some years (Ellsbury and McCann). Did I expect things to go wrong with the signings this soon? Nope but it's happened anyway and won't be getting much better for them anytime soon. The Jays on the other hand have a VERY stable offence ( they could use a good batter who can hit lefties but that's all offensively). Meaning that they have to secure is a frontline starter, which there are plenty of out there  and unlike the Yankees they only have 1 other spot aside from the starter they need putting them in a situation to more easily improve enough to hold up or make that next step.

-Central: Detroit wins this one and there isn't much to discuss, a couple weeks ago I may have said Kansas City but they have since fallen back 4.5 games from the lead and Detroit has seen some major improvement form Rick Porcello and Verlander could be making some progress back to a better form. On the other side the Tigers have the same issues they had coming into the season, defense at shortstop and a closer, however their lacklustre defense at shortstop hasn't killed them and Joe Nathan sucking big time has been some what negated as there starters give them good leads to deal with and their heavy hitters in V-Mart and Miggy are continuing to drive in the runs they need to stay in the game.

-West: Oakland, again not much to write here, Oakland is by far the best team in baseball and the most well rounded, all this while having 1/3 of their initial starting rotation being out for the year. Now here's the shocking part here, some of their more well known players have been hitting badly, especially Jed Lowrie, however if you look at his stepper stats like BABIP you'd notice that he's likely in for some correction to his career numbers meaning he is likely to get better and improve the A's offence in the process, almost unfair isn't it?

Wild Cards: I've got the Angels and the Mariners coming in with the wild cards, this is due or the fact that they both have the pitching necessary to keep up with the high end teams this year, especially once Taijuan Walker is back in form for Seattle and even more so when James Paxton is back in action, while the Angels have Weaver as usual and then Garrett Richards who is pitching like an ace this year, which is a formidable combo. As well a good amount of their offences have been quality this year as well, Pujols and Hamilton are performing closer to what is expected of them, Cano, while not hitting as many home runs he is hitting well above .300 and driving in runs and then Kyle Seager and Dustin Ackley are on fire as well.

National League
-East: Nationals are going to win this one hands down, Mets and Phillies can't put up a fight in their condition going into this season, the Marlins are well......the Marlins and the Braves are again a high strikeout team but are relying on pitchers who are playing above their ability and the floor will collapse from under them soon. Additionally the Braves have lost some of their major run producers to injury, such as Evan Gattis. On the other hand the Nationals are still in first place despite not having Bryce Harper for an extended period of time and all of their starters have been performing up to expectations or better, in the case of Jordan Zimmerman.

-Central: In the central I have the Cardinals winning it's inreally don't buy the Brewers as the team who will remains atop the central as they have more or less been beating up on weaker teams and there are unfavourable stats to their starters as well such as Estrada who has given up the most home runs in the whole of MLB. On the side of the Reds they just aren't the same team, while they do have the starting and relief pitching to make a push Brandon Phillips continues his mediocre streak from last year, Joey Votto has had a serious power drop and is dealing with injury and they no longer hand Shin Soo Choo as a OBP master, though Billy Hamilton is a decent replacement.

-West: here I have the Dodgers winning the west, while they are slightly behind the Giants right now I believe that San Francisco's offence is going to drop its production a bit, though not by much. The main reason is because almost all of their starters are performing above like Tim Hudson and Tim Lincecum. In addition you can't discount the scariness of the Dodgers rotation with Kerahaw, Grienke, Ryu, Beckett and to a lesser extent Haren ( who is benefitting from the more pitcher friendly Dodgers Stadium)

-Wild Cards: I've got the remaining guys from the central and west divisions, those being the Giants and the Brewers because even if they do have the decrease I expect the rest of the competition is so much more worse.



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